Matt Smith/CFL.ca
TORONTO — The Winnipeg Blue Bombers missed their chance to clinch their playoff spot during the OK Tire Labour Day Weekend, but as this year’s first edition of the CFL Simulation details, the post-season is just within the Bombers and the Toronto Argonauts’ grasp.
Both the defending East and West Division champs can clinch playoff berths this week and the Simulation shows that it’s almost a certainty that those two teams will do so soon. You don’t need a complex algorithm to get that sense. The most probable outcome for a Grey Cup pairing right now is another Toronto-Winnipeg battle (a 70.37 per cent chance).
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What the Simulation might educate you on is how playoff-bound the Saskatchewan Roughriders are right now.
With a projected record of 9-9 and riding the high of wins over the BC Lions and the Blue Bombers, the Jake Dolegala-led Riders are trending in the right direction and have won the Simulation over, for now at least. We’ll offer a gentle reminder here that the CFL Simulation’s output is a snapshot of the season in this very moment. That snapshot can and likely will change week-to-week.
Check out our first CFL Simulation of the season and see where your team stands.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
| ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS | |
| Team (Projected 2023 record) | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts (14-4) | >99.99% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (14-4) | >99.99% |
| BC Lions (11-7) | 99.93% |
| Montreal Alouettes (9-9) | 96.13% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (9-9) | 91.07% |
| Calgary Stampeders (7-11) | 27.38% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (6-12) | 51.51% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (6-12) | 33.15% |
| Edmonton Elks (5-13) | 0.83% |
| ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME | |
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | >99.99% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | >99.57% |
| BC Lions | 93.11% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 84.17% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 9.73% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 7.08% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 6.11% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 0.23% |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
| ODDS TO WIN EAST | |
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 99.51% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.49% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | <0.01% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | <0.01% |
| ODDS TO WIN WEST | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 79.60% |
| BC Lions | 19.94% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.46% |
| Calgary Stampeders | <0.01% |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
| ODDS TO APPEAR IN 110th GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 86.84% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 81.02% |
| BC Lions | 16.19% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 8.49% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 2.59% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 2.30% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 1.42% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 1.11% |
| Edmonton Elks | 0.04% |
| ODDS TO WIN 110th GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 57.76% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 31.01% |
| BC Lions | 7.88% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 1.49% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.99% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.34% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 0.29% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.23% |
| Edmonton Elks | 0.01% |
| MOST LIKELY 110th GREY CUP MATCHUPS | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 70.37% |
| BC-Toronto | 14.04% |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 6.84% |
| Saskatchewan-Toronto | 2.11% |
| Winnipeg-Hamilton | 1.86% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Toronto won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
