The Canadian Press
TORONTO — Another week of games came with another week of the Toronto Argonauts and Winnipeg Blue Bombers showing their dominance over their opponents.
While the CFL Simulation has great confidence in seeing a Grey Cup rematch taking place this year, we’ll highlight something interesting from this week’s results.
Take a look at the Calgary Stampeders and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Both teams are battling for playoff spots in seasons that have presented challenges for both clubs. Still, in this week’s Simulation, they have slightly higher Grey Cup winning percentages than the teams immediately in front of them in their respective divisional standings (Saskatchewan in the West and Montreal in the East).
The Simulation feels that right now the Riders have a better shot of making the playoffs than the Stamps do. However, if the Stamps do get into the playoffs, the Simulation is more optimistic that they will proceed further than the Riders. It feels the same way about the Ticats going further than the Alouettes.
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Check out the latest CFL Simulation of the season to see where your team stands.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
| ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS | |
| Team (Projected 2023 record) | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts (15-3) | C |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (14-4) | C |
| BC Lions (11-7) | 99.95% |
| Montreal Alouettes (8-10) | 93.28% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (8-10) | 86.58% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (8-10) | 76.57% |
| Calgary Stampeders (7-11) | 30.03% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (5-13) | 11.01% |
| Edmonton Elks (5-13) | 2.58% |
| ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME | |
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | >99.99% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | >99.99% |
| BC Lions | 97.91% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 61.06% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 37.00% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 1.96% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 1.94% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 0.13% |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
| ODDS TO WIN EAST | |
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | >99.99% |
| Montreal Alouettes | <0.01% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | <0.01% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | <0.01% |
| ODDS TO WIN WEST | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 91.01% |
| BC Lions | 8.99% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | <0.01% |
| Calgary Stampeders | <0.01% |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
| ODDS TO APPEAR IN 110TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 91.51% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 91.33% |
| BC Lions | 7.67% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 5.13% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 2.71% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 0.88% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.42% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.28% |
| Edmonton Elks | 0.07% |
| ODDS TO WIN 110TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 67.41% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 28.70% |
| BC Lions | 2.71% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.59% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 0.27% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.19% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.09% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.03% |
| Edmonton Elks | 0.02% |
| MOST LIKELY 110TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 83.58% |
| BC-Toronto | 7.02% |
| Winnipeg-Hamilton | 4.68% |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 2.47% |
| Calgary-Toronto | 0.01% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Toronto won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
