Arthur Ward/CFL.ca
TORONTO — If you were wearing green while you sat in front of your TV, or in the stands at TD Place last week, you weren’t happy with what the Saskatchewan Roughriders gave you.
The Riders dropped a game to what had been the coldest team in the league, in the Ottawa REDBLACKS, albeit with an impressive last gasp attempt at a comeback. As difficult as that loss — and the bulk of September — may have been for Riders’ fans, here is a glimmer of hope for a fan base that might need it.
When the CFL Simulation worked its magic this week, the Riders’ playoff chances actually increased. The Riders can thank their opponents one province to the west for that. The Edmonton Elks’ and Calgary Stampeders’ Week 16 losses buoyed the Riders in the standings and in the Simulation’s calculations this week. Despite their recent struggles, the Riders still have an 82.59 per cent chance of making it to the post-season.
Another interesting bit of activity in this week’s Simulation: the BC Lions are a slight favourite to take the West Division (53.75 per cent compared to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers’ 46.22 per cent). Despite that difference, the Simulation still likes the Bombers to represent the West at the 110th Grey Cup this year.
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Check out the latest CFL Simulation to see where your team stands.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
| ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS | |
| Team (Projected record) | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts (16-2) | C |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (13-5) | C |
| BC Lions (13-5) | C |
| Montreal Alouettes (9-9) | 99.59% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (8-10) | 99.27% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (7-11) | 82.59% |
| Calgary Stampeders (5-13) | 15.20% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (5-13) | 1.75% |
| Edmonton Elks (5-13) | 1.60% |
| ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME | |
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | C |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | C |
| BC Lions | >99.99% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 71.83% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 28.14% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.03% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | <0.01% |
| Calgary Stampeders | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
| ODDS TO WIN EAST | |
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | C |
| Montreal Alouettes | E |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | E |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | E |
| ODDS TO WIN WEST | |
| Team | Projection |
| BC Lions | 53.78% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 46.22% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Calgary Stampeders | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
| ODDS TO APPEAR IN 110TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 88.11% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 62.30% |
| BC Lions | 37.05% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 6.80% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 5.08% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.40% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 0.21% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.03% |
| Edmonton Elks | 0.02% |
| ODDS TO WIN 110TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 49.72% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 32.75% |
| BC Lions | 13.96% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 1.99% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 1.48% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.05% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 0.05% |
| Edmonton Elks | <0.01% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | <0.01% |
| MOST LIKELY 110TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 54.86% |
| BC-Toronto | 32.68% |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 4.24% |
| Winnipeg-Hamilton | 3.19% |
| BC-Montreal | 2.50% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Toronto won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
