CFL Simulation: So you’re saying there’s a chance
Patrick Doyle/CFL.ca
TORONTO — With one playoff spot remaining and four teams in the hunt for it, we’re staring down a situation where three teams will end their respective seasons on a sour, unhappy note.
This week’s CFL Simulation shows us that it’s the Ottawa REDBLACKS that have the most difficult path to that final playoff spot. The only way they can make the playoffs at this point would be as the first-ever East Division team to cross over to the West for the playoffs. To paraphrase the great Jim Carey, we’re saying there is a chance for it to happen, albeit a slim one.
That path entails the REDBLACKS winning out to finish 7-11, while the Saskatchewan Roughriders would need to lose out on their final games. On top of that, the Calgary Stampeders and Edmonton Elks could each win no more than two of their remaining games.
Out West, the Roughriders’ odds continue to increase despite their continued struggles over the past month. That’s thanks to the ongoing struggles of Edmonton, Calgary and Ottawa.
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Check out the latest CFL Simulation to see where your team stands this week.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
| ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS | |
| Team (Projected record) | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts (15-3) | C |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (13-5) | C |
| BC Lions (13-5) | C |
| Montreal Alouettes (10-8) | C |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (9-9) | C |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (7-11) | 88.08% |
| Calgary Stampeders (5-13) | 10.32% |
| Edmonton Elks (5-13) | 1.56% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (4-14) | 0.04% |
| ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME | |
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | C |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | C |
| BC Lions | C |
| Montreal Alouettes | 88.54% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 11.46% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Calgary Stampeders | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | E |
| ODDS TO WIN EAST | |
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | C |
| Montreal Alouettes | E |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | E |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | E |
| ODDS TO WIN WEST | |
| Team | Projection |
| BC Lions | 39.15% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 60.85% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Calgary Stampeders | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
| ODDS TO APPEAR IN 110TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 83.13% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 77.67% |
| BC Lions | 21.55% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 13.36% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 3.51% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.57% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 0.18% |
| Edmonton Elks | 0.03% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | <0.01% |
| ODDS TO WIN 110TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 50.02% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 36.89% |
| BC Lions | 8.00% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 4.10% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.84% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.10% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 0.04% |
| Edmonton Elks | 0.01% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | <0.01% |
| MOST LIKELY 110TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 64.55% |
| BC-Toronto | 17.95% |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 10.39% |
| BC-Montreal | 2.85% |
| Winnipeg-Hamilton | 2.74% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Toronto won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
