Jason Halstead/CFL.ca
TORONTO — The Winnipeg Blue Bombers don’t play for another week, but the three-time running West Division leaders are front of mind for the CFL Simulation.
With the regular season complete and the playoffs about to begin, the Simulation is very, very high on the Bombers’ post-season chances.
The Simulation gives the Bombers a 93 per cent chance of making it to the 110th Grey Cup and a 71.03 per cent chance of winning the whole thing in Hamilton. The team’s most likely opponent is perhaps unsurprisingly the 16-2 Toronto Argonauts (69.15 per cent chance of meeting).
Of course, a strong showing from the victorious teams in this week’s Eastern and Western Semi-Final games could change that outlook. Whether it’s BC or Calgary that emerges from the Western Semi-Final, the Simulation gives them a slim chance to unseat the Bombers at IG Field.
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Check out the latest CFL Simulation to see where each playoff team stands and what their chances are for November.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
| ODDS TO APPEAR IN 110TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 93.00% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 74.33% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 20.67% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 5.00% |
| BC Lions | 3.73% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 3.27% |
| ODDS TO WIN 110TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 71.03% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 20.34% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 5.08% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 1.33% |
| BC Lions | 1.24% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.98% |
| MOST LIKELY 110TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 69.15% |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 19.21% |
| Winnipeg-Hamilton | 4.64% |
| BC-Toronto | 2.73% |
| Calgary-Toronto | 2.45% |
| BC-Montreal | 0.81% |
| Calgary-Montreal | 0.66% |
| BC-Hamilton | 0.19% |
| Calgary-Hamilton | 0.16% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Toronto won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
