Jimmy Jeong/CFL.ca
TORONTO — In a complete rematch of last year’s playoff bracket, the CFL Simulation sees that trend continuing into the 110th Grey Cup.
The Simulation is very high on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, who are given a 91.12 per cent chance of appearing in next week’s Grey Cup game at Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton. The Bombers’ most likely opponent? It’s the 16-2 defending Grey Cup champion Toronto Argonauts, who are given a 70.35 per cent chance of advancing past the Montreal Alouettes in this week’s Eastern Final.
An Argos-Bombers rematch has a 64.16 per cent chance of happening, according to the Simulation. If you’re a fan of change, the Simulation’s next most probable Grey Cup outcome is the Bombers squaring off against the Alouettes (a 26.96 per cent possibility).
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Check out the latest CFL Simulation to see where each remaining team stands and what their chances are for this week and next.
| ODDS TO APPEAR IN 110TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 91.12% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 70.35% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 29.65% |
| BC Lions | 8.88% |
| ODDS TO WIN 110TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 66.22% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 21.36% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 9.03% |
| BC Lions | 3.39% |
| PROBABILITIES FOR ALL 110TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 64.16% |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 26.96% |
| BC-Toronto | 6.19% |
| BC-Montreal | 2.69% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Toronto won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
