August 9, 2017

Weekly Predictor: Upset time in Tiger Town?

Ryan McCullough/Ticats.ca

Edmonton, Montreal and Winnipeg are heavy favourites this week but that’s not enough to deter Jamie Nye, who’s got an upset up his sleeve.

The Ticats seek win No. 1 against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers but it’s not the Hammer Nye’s got eyes on but the one-win Ottawa REDBLACKS against the undefeated Edmonton Eskimos.

Could the Double E really fall for the first time this season?

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Here’s Jamie Nye with his picks for Week 8.

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Edmonton at Ottawa
Thursday | 7:30 p.m. ET

Trevor Harris looks to get the REDBLACKS back on track in Week 8 (Patrick Doyle/CFL.ca)

All four games this week see matchups where the team with the better record on the road faces the team with a worse record. You have to believe some upsets are in the making this week!

Let’s start with the REDBLACKS. The Eskimos have had a couple of very close wins, while Ottawa has had several close losses. At one point or the other, both teams will have to be on the other side of the trend. Why not this week?

The biggest problem is the fact that Mike Reilly is having a great season, while the REDBLACKS give up a lot of yards through the air. Brandon Zylstra is now part of the lengthening list of injuries for the Eskimos so Reilly’s top two targets in Zylstra and Bowman are out.

At some point this has to catch up to the Eskimos. Here is my upset pick No. 1 for the week.

PICK: OTTAWA (20% confident)


Toronto at Montreal
Friday | 7:30 p.m. ET

Friday’s clash in Montreal holds particular significance for former Alouette S.J. Green (Johany Jutras/Argonauts.ca)

Ricky Ray was announced as day to day despite reports that he’d miss a few weeks. Now we have the wait and see for the Toronto Argonauts in a big matchup against the second-place team in the East, Montreal.

The Alouettes are coming off a bye week that followed that heartbreaking loss to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Head Coach Jacques Chapdelaine had to be happy with the offensive output of 400-plus yards in three straight games. If Darian Durant can clean up some of his mistakes, the Alouettes should be able to start climbing the standings in the East.

S.J. Green sounds just a little bit motivated to take on the team that got rid of him before the season but if it’s not Ricky Ray throwing him the ball, the chances of a win in Montreal drop significantly for the Argos.

PICK: MONTREAL (33% confident)


Winnipeg at Hamilton
Saturday | 7:30 p.m. ET

Late-game victories have become Matt Nichols‘ forte since starting for the Bombers (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)

The heartbreak kids go to Hamilton against the Tiger-Cats who are making major changes this week. Jeff Reinebold is out as defensive coordinator as Phillip Lolley takes his place.

Changes mid-season either bring out the best of teams or the worst. If this move aides with some of the dysfunction on the defensive side, the Tiger-Cats will be better for it but the offence needs to improve as well.

Yes, the defence is in last in many of the major stats but so too is the offence. Hamilton showed promising signs last week in Edmonton. They also take on the second-worst defence in the league, in terms of points allowed. This could be the matchup that helps give Hamilton the long-awaited victory.

But I’m not picking the upset here. I’m more of a believer that the more noise off the field, the worse off the on-field product is. And the Bombers just find ways to win.

PICK: WINNIPEG (50% confident)


BC at Saskatchewan
Sunday | 8:00 p.m. ET

Kevin Glenn and the Riders have been a much better team at home as opposed to on the road (Matt Smith/CFL.ca)

This is the biggest game I’ve struggled with because the Roughriders seem like a homer team this season. At home they are beasts, on the road they are terrible. The Riders have scored 38.3 points per game at home while only scoring 13.6 on the road.

Something is going right at their new home.

The BC Lions appear to be making the change back to Jonathon Jennings this week as the starter is healthy and backup Travis Lulay is banged up. I’m not sure there is any concern about the offence with Jennings coming back after a few weeks healing up.

I think the home field advantage will again work in Saskatchewan’s favour as they respond big time to last week’s ugly loss against these same Lions.

PICK: SASKATCHEWAN (10% confident)

DRAFTKINGS: NYE PICKS HIS ROSTER

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DraftKings Week 8 lineup

POS PLAYER TEAM AVG PTS SALARY
QB Kevin Glenn BC@SSK 24.1 $9,300
RB Andrew Harris WPG@HAM 19.8 $7,800
WR Naaman Roosevelt BC@SSK 17.7 $7,900
WR Chris Williams BC@SSK 10.5 $8,500
FLEX B.J. Cunningham TOR@MTL 17.5 $7,200
FLEX Bryant Mitchell EDM@OTT 17.8 $4,500
DST Alouettes TOR@MTL 3.7 $4,600

 

The Saskatchewan Roughriders score 38 points per game at home and are coming off a loss to the BC Lions.

I think this is a perfect opportunity for those counting the Riders out for them to have a bounce back game. I’m going to start off with Kevin Glenn, who has been hearing about quarterback controversies and fans wanting Brandon Bridge to start. I’m betting Glenn’s performance will be closer to his average of 24 points per game, than one like his outing last week.

I like matching the quarterback up with one of the top receivers every week because if you’re going to be right, you have to maximize the pay off. If you’re wrong on the QB, it’s likely you’re behind the 8-ball.

(NOTE: Riders offensive line is making changes due to centre Dan Clark’s major injury. Glenn may have to get rid of the ball quickly, which is something he can do)

Andrew Harris is an automatic must play! Period! He’ll likely score the top RB points every week. If he doesn’t it’ll be Jerome Messam and or Jeremiah Johnson and Messam isn’t playing and the Riders held Johnson off the TD board last week.

The Riders are bad on the big play from a defensive secondary point of view. Chris Williams should only get more and more involved in the BC Lions offence and last week he was impressive in his return.

B.J. Cunningham appears to be Darian Durant’s top target and becoming a pretty consistent contributor and his value is lower than others averaging 17 points per game.

Bryant Mitchell is being played because someone has to catch the ball with no Brandon Zylstra and Adarius Bowman. Vidal Hazelton is the other intriguing Eskimos receiver to invest in this week.

The Montreal Alouettes are going up against unproven back-up quarterback with limited experience with Ricky Ray out of the lineup, so I’m thinking a turnover or two is likely coming their way.