The Canadian Press
The Edmonton Eskimos and Saskatchewan Roughriders have been fighting tooth and nail for playoff positioning for the last month or so. After the results of this past week, that doesn’t look like it’s going to change anytime soon. And with these two teams scheduled to meet in the final week of the season, we should probably prepare ourselves for the high stakes that game carries with it.
Collision course
The scenario is pretty clear on both sides: if either the Eskimos or Roughriders win out, they are guaranteed at least third spot in the West Division. For the Esks, wins in their final three games would get them to a 12-6 record, which would be unattainable for the Riders.
But because these teams have a head-to-head meeting still on the slate, Saskatchewan still controls its own fate for third place. Winning out would get the Riders to 11-7, which would entail a win over the Esks. In turn, that means Edmonton could finish 11-7 at best while also losing the head-to-head tiebreaker with Saskatchewan (the Riders won their first meeting 54-31 in September). Each team has three games remaining, and if either wins all three, they’re guarantee third place.
So, despite the heartbreaking nature of Saskatchewan’s 33-32 loss to Ottawa, it didn’t put the former that much further back. For their part, the Eskimos put together an impressive rally to win their second straight game on Saturday, 30-27 win over Toronto. Now with a one-game edge, Edmonton does have the higher ground, but it’s not a huge advantage, at least not standings-wise.
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Mike Reilly‘s late touchdown pass guided the Eskimos from behind to beat the Argos (The Canadian Press)
However, I do think the Eskimos have the leg up down the stretch when it comes to the on-field side of things. With some of their additions in recent weeks, they look to be coming together at the right time, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
With Derel Walker five games into his CFL return, he’s looking as dangerous as ever and provides a perfect complement for Brandon Zylstra, who might be the league’s most reliable receiver and is now leading the yardage pack by almost triple digits. This group of Eskimos receivers is as complete as they come and gives quarterback Mike Reilly a bevy of different options. They’re going to be a handful the next few weeks.
It’s the work of C.J. Gable in his first two games in green and gold that pushes Edmonton over the top in this comparison, though. Gable has gone over 100 yards in both his starts and has three total touchdowns since joining the Eskimos. All of a sudden, Edmonton has gone from a one-dimensional attack to a very well-rounded one that can do damage on the ground and through the air.
That’s not to say the Riders are in tough, because there were some encouraging signs against Ottawa, despite the result. Kevin Glenn bounced back after being replaced by Brandon Bridge in Saskatchewan’s last outing, while newcomer Trent Richardson looked more comfortable in his second start. Overall, though, I think the Eskimos look slightly more complete going into the final three weeks.
In those final three games, Edmonton plays in BC and hosts the Stampeders before visiting the Riders to finish off the season. Saskatchewan, on the other hand, travels to Calgary and hosts Montreal before that key Week 20 showdown at Mosaic. In terms of opponents, it’s almost a wash when you put the remaining schedules side-by-side.
Of course, there’s an important question that will need to be asked at some point: is it best to go through the West Division as the three seed? Or is heading east as a crossover team more advantageous? We’ll get into that later this season, but we know one thing for sure right now: that Week 20 game between Edmonton and Saskatchewan has high stakes written all over it.
Up for grabs
Knowing Hamilton had already lost on Friday night, seeing Ryan Lindley run the game-winning touchdown in from the one with four seconds remaining against the Riders one night later had to feel like a huge weight being lifted off the Ottawa REDBLACKS. It’s been a frustrating season at times for Ottawa, but Saturday’s win in Regina clinched a playoff spot and guaranteed an opportunity to defend the Grey Cup title.
That’s two straight impressive comeback wins for the REDBLACKS, in fact. Week 16 saw Ottawa fall down 15-3 to BC before outscoring the Lions 27-10 the rest of the way en route to a 30-25 triumph. While it wasn’t quite as stunning a win, it was another example of why you can’t sleep on this group of REDBLACKS.
Trevor Harris led the REDBLACKS on two late scoring drives to top the Riders in Week 17 (The Canadian Press)
And don’t look now, but all of a sudden it’s Ottawa in the driver’s seat for top spot in the division, and thus, an automatic spot in the Eastern Final. Thanks to their Week 1 tie with Calgary, the REDBLACKS have a one-point edge on the Argos, and those two will battle it out for East Division seeding down the stretch.
The biggest drawback for Ottawa is its schedule, though, because it’s not conventional. The REDBLACKS have played for 17 weeks straight and get their two byes in the span of three weeks. Ottawa is off this week and also sits out for Week 20, while Toronto still has two games to play before the regular season ends.
Without a head-to-head meeting, the Argos essentially still have the ball in their court. Wins over Winnipeg and BC in their final two games would guarantee the Boatmen the East Division’s number one seed even if the REDBLACKS win their final game against Hamilton in Week 19.
It puts Ottawa in a strange situation. If the REDBLACKS were to finish first, they’d be playing just one game in the span of four weeks when you account for their bye into the Eastern Final. Finishing second would mean having to play one more game, but would also help counteract the potential effects of all that inactivity.
In the end, all Ottawa can do is finish the season with a win over the Tiger-Cats and see what happens from there. Because of the unusual way their regular season is going to end, there are benefits to both outcomes.
The one thing we know for sure is the East Division will be sending just two teams to the playoffs this year, and those teams are decided. While Toronto looked in good shape to lock down the top seed a few weeks ago, things have changed in the blink of an eye, and that makes the final three weeks very, very interesting.
Heartbreaker
Most everyone expected the Hamilton Tiger-Cats to lose their Friday contest with the Calgary Stampeders. The Stamps were riding a 10-game winning streak and had beaten them 60-1 in late July. Well, the predicted outcome ended up coming to pass, but the road that game traveled on Friday night was anything but expected. Now eliminated from the playoffs, Hamilton put up a valiant effort to keep playoff hopes alive and came up just a hair short.
No one inside the Tiger-Cats’ locker room wants to hear some writer say this, but they should be holding their heads high. After a dismal 0-8 start, Hamilton was able to salvage its season and play meaningful football into October and was the closest team yet to knock off the juggernaut Stamps. Football isn’t judged on near misses, but the Ticats can at the very least know they left everything on the field prior to being eliminated from playoff contention.
The look ahead to next season is an interesting one in Hamilton. The ‘Cats will try to finish the season strong and can play a little spoiler in their Week 19 game against the REDBLACKS. Beyond that, though, they’ve got some interesting things to think about going into the off-season.
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» Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET: Saskatchewan at Calgary
» Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET: Winnipeg at Toronto
» Saturday, 10:00 p.m. ET: Edmonton at BC
» Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET: Hamilton at Montreal
Tailback Alex Green looks like an interesting find, and he added two more touchdowns in Hamilton’s 28-25 loss to the Stamps. In his three games with the Tiger-Cats, Green is averaging just under 95 yards per game and more than six yards per carry to go along with his three touchdowns. Can he be a long-term option for Hamilton? I guess we’ll know a little more once the season comes to an end.
Beyond that, Hamilton’s quarterback situation needs to be sorted out. After another solid performance, the Ticats needs to decide whether Jeremiah Masoli is the guy they’re going forward with at the top of the depth chart. He’s gradually improved since taking over the starting role in September and has looked strong the last few weeks. The matter becomes complicated knowing Masoli isn’t under contract for next season, though.
Of course that has a direct impact on the future of Zach Collaros. Still one of the highest-paid pivots in the league, Hamilton likely can’t justify having Collaros on the roster as a backup from a salary cap perspective. As such, dealing him would be their best bet if they decide they want Masoli to lead the way from 2018. If the Tiger-Cats and Masoli can’t figure out contract terms, though, then we could very well see Collaros starting Week 1 next June.
The Ticats played way more meaningful games than I thought they were going to after starting this season 0-8. In the end, that start cost them a shot at a post-season spot, and that’s disappointing. But I’ll give them some credit for fighting as hard as they did the last seven weeks and I’ll be intrigued to see if there’s any carryover into 2018. Regardless, though, this winter is going to be very interesting in the Hammer.
