Weekly Predictor: Conservative offence could benefit Riders

Jamie Nye

CFL.ca

@jamienye

The Roughriders have a tendency of keeping their offence very much close to the line of scrimmage, which, against the Eskimos, could very much be a strength for Saskatchewan.

Highly anticipated, Johnny Manziel gets his first CFL start as a member of the Alouettes against his former team. Meanwhile, McLeod Bethel-Thompson also gets his first start for the Argonauts.

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With the first game tabbed to kick off on Thursday, here are my picks for Week 8 of the CFL season.

OTTAWA @ TORONTO

Thursday | 7:00 p.m. ET

Getting his first CFL start since arriving in the league in 2016 as a member of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, McLeod Bethel-Thompson will hope to spark the struggling Argos offence. (Adam Gagnon, CFL.ca)

Can McLeod Bethel-Thompson spark the Argonauts offence? Well, Ricky Ray was off to a slow start. James Franklin couldn’t get it going. I’m not convinced Bethel-Thompson in his first career start is going to be able to pull off a big win against the REDBLACKS.

Ottawa’s defence is quietly putting together a strong start to the campaign thanks to Noel Thorpe. The new defensive coordinator has had strong defences for most of his years in Montreal before moving to Ottawa.

The REDBLACKS have room to grow on offence and so far this season, teams have found their game against the Argonauts.

PICK: OTTAWA (75% confidence)

SASKATCHEWAN @ EDMONTON

Thursday | 10:00 p.m. ET

Zach Collaros is back after being removed from the six-game injury list. (The Canadian Press)

The Roughriders offence could get a boost with Zach Collaros back and the possibility that Duron Carter returns to the offensive side of the ball. Jerome Messam‘s release shouldn’t have too big an impact on the team with Marcus Thigpen and Tre Mason being able to run the ball effectively.

The Edmonton Eskimos lead the league in many offensive categories, while the Roughriders defence is the same on the other side of the ball. This matchup will tell the tale of the game. Can Chris Jones come up with a game plan that slows down Mike Reilly, Duke Williams, Derel Walker and company?

I believe he can. The defensive line is one of the best in the league.

Also, the Eskimos give up a lot of yards on the ground and the Riders love running the ball and keeping things close to the line of scrimmage. The Riders can own the time of possession and with a little bit of a spark from Collaros, here is my upset pick of the week.

PICK: SASKATCHEWAN (10% confidence)

HAMILTON @ MONTREAL

Friday | 7:30 p.m. ET

After a full week to learn his new playbook, Johnny Manziel gets the highly-anticipated start for the Alouettes in Week 8. (MontrealAlouettes.com)

Johnny Manziel hits the field for the first time against the Tiger-Cats. Defensive players everywhere have wanted to play and shut down Manziel, since his very high profile signing in the CFL.

The Tiger-Cats get the first crack at him and after two weeks of practice, it’s hard to imagine Manziel being 100% ready to go. He even admits he’ll make mistakes but is hoping he makes more positive plays than negative.

On the other side of the ball, the Tiger-Cats are trying to get back to their high flying offence we saw at the start of the season.

Hamilton has lost three straight, so too has Montreal. A streak will end on Friday and I think Masoli will get the best of Manziel this time.

PICK: HAMILTON (50% confidence)

B.C. @ CALGARY

Saturday | 9:00 p.m. ET

Lions’ QB Travis Lulay will have to play at the highest level imaginable, and completely manage the game himself in order to top the undefeated Stamps. (The Canadian Press)

The Calgary Stampeders were able to put up some points against the strong Roughriders defence last week. I can only imagine the same will be true against a struggling B.C. Lions defence.

Travis Lulay is going to have to play at the highest level he’s played in some time if the Lions are going to upset the Stampeders. Too bad for Lulay the Stampeders defence is #1 in the CFL.

I also have a problem picking against Calgary at home.

PICK: CALGARY (85% confidence)

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QUARTERBACK – Jeremiah Masoli – The Montreal Alouettes defence gives up a lot of yards in the air and Masoli has had over 300 yards passing in all but one game so far this season. I’m also thinking a little extra push for Masoli to outplay his former backup Johnny Manziel.

RUNNING BACKS – William Powell and Marcus Thigpen – After seeing a few big games by running backs against Toronto, I’m intrigued by Powell getting the ball on the ground and collecting some catches as well this week. I believe the Roughriders will try to control the game on the ground and Thigpen and Tre Mason now are the only running backs on the roster so they’ll get more opportunities. Thigpen can bust big plays and is a bigger factor in the passing game and with PPR, that increases his value.

RECEIVERS – Eric Rogers and Duron Carter – When Bo Levi Mitchell is looking to throw to the end zone, Eric Rogers is his number one target as he is tied for the league lead with five touchdowns. Remember Rogers also missed action this season and is up there among leaders on 2^nd down catches. Yes, Mitchell’s favourite clutch target. Duron Carter is back on offence and Zach Collaros is back throwing the ball, which means the opportunity of some downfield throws. Combine that with a prediction of a successful run game and play action could be an effective tool. Carter’s value this week will be 3,763, which could be the lowest you get him all season.

FLEX – Alex Green – If he returns from injury, I think Green offers great upside in this matchup against the Alouettes. He ran the ball very well last season for the Tiger-Cats and will come in with fresh legs and be hoping to spark an offence that has gone a little cold the last three games.

DEFENCE – Empty – But if you’re looking for defence, Hamilton and Ottawa’s could come with good value this week going up against first time starters.

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