The Canadian Press
Inevitably in salary cap style Fantasy contests, the price tags catch up with the production levels on top players.
This week, a couple of regulars top the quarterback and running back projections (Mike Reilly, Andrew Harris) but their lofty tags make them questionable plays in a week ripe with values.
QUARTERBACK
Top Projected
Mike Reilly, EDM – $14,000
McLeod Bethel-Thompson, TOR – $6,000
Bo Levi Mitchell, CGY – $8,828
Punt Single
Antonio Pipkin, MTL – $5,000
Reilly still tops the projections regardless of position this week, but it’s closer than it has been at any other point this season. There’s really no question that he’s the top Fantasy quarterback in the league, but the matchup with the Ticats is an unexpectedly difficult one this season given Hamilton’s secondary struggles the past couple years. The Tiger-Cats are allowing only 7.15 yards per pass attempt on defence this season – second in the league – compared to the league-worst 8.64 yards per attempt they allowed in 2017. They’ve also allowed a measly six passing touchdowns to this point, the league’s third lowest rate. Reilly accounted for two of those six passing TDs allowed from their matchup in Week 2 but even at that 26-point rate of return, the salary is tough to justify.
There are four halves of football to judge Bethel-Thompson by: One of them was poor, two were fine, and one is other worldly in its magnificent nature. That one half of football props up the other three significantly. Even with some manual rate reductions though, Bethel-Thompson projects exceptionally well versus the Als secondary that seems to be at a total loss as to how to defend the pass. Macbeth has taken the throne from Ricky Ray in Toronto and hopes to make the most of his time leading the inconsistent Argo offence. Toronto passes for the second lowest yards per attempt on offence through 10 weeks but still projects for an above average rate this week as only their own defence allows more yards per pass attempt to opposing offences (9.23). Add to that a league-high 22 touchdowns allowed through the air by the Als and it makes it a good week to stack the Argos passing game on the cheap.
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If players are looking for a QB with a more proven track record, there’s another option at the position who’s proven his value more consistently. Mitchell is second in the league with 18 touchdown passes and the Stamps passing offence produces the third most passing yards per attempt at 8.84. Initially, the matchup with the Bombers appears difficult as they allow the third lowest yards per pass attempt at 7.49 and the second lowest rate of passing TDs per attempt with only six given up this season. Trevor Harris showed the secondary could be had in Week 10 with 361 yards and a touchdown so it’s not unreasonable to expect Mitchell may continue that trend.
Pipkin quietly had the best outing of any Montreal quarterback this season. Passing for 217 yards and a touchdown along with another 23 yards and a touchdown on the ground for a total of 19 Fantasy points isn’t earth shattering stuff, but at only $5,000 it allows you to pay up for a lot of other talent. Toronto allows the most passing yards per attempt on defence, so he’s got that going for him, which is nice. On a week Reilly’s projection is underwhelming and the secondary option is unproven, punting the position could make some sense.
RUNNING BACK
Top Projected
Andrew Harris, WPG – $10,288
James Wilder Jr., TOR – $9,125
Alex Green, HAM – $7,214
Punt Single
William Stanback, MTL – $4,000
Like Reilly, Harris leads the league in most of the statistical categories at his position, but also like Reilly, he finds himself in the toughest possible matchup to draw for his position this week. The Stampeders allow a league low 4.83 yards per carry and have allowed only four rushing touchdowns. Harris averages 5.95 yards per carry and the Bombers as a team average over six, but the Stamps have allowed only one 100-yard rusher through eight games, so odds are against him achieving the feat. The touchdowns won’t be easy to come by, either.
Wilder, on the other hand, comes in at a significant discount to Harris while carrying a nearly identical projection. As his workload has stabilized with over 19 touches in each of the past three games, his production as stabilized as well. The matchup with Montreal is more appealing for receivers than rushers but much of Wilder’s Fantasy production comes as a receiver. The biggest thing working in Wilder’s favour this week is the volume as Montreal allows over 64 plays per game to opposing offences. Wilder projects for nearly 20 touches this week, the highest of any player on the slate.
With a low salary and high upside, William Stanback is an appealing Fantasy option at RB (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)
The Eskimos rush defence has been worth targeting over the past couple seasons; this week is no different as Green draws that matchup. Edmonton allowed a ridiculous 133 yards rushing and two touchdowns to Mercer Timmis in Week 2 and Green is a step up in talent despite Timmis’ heroic effort. Green cannot possibly continue scoring two TDs per game, but the date with Edmonton should help compensate for that regression to the mean through yardage allowed as they allow the second highest yards per carry at 5.44.
One of the biggest bargains on the slate is Stanback, who is expected to get the start at RB for the Als with Tyrell Sutton lost to injury. Toronto allows a league average 5.12 yards per carry but it’s their inflated 9.4 yards per pass allowed that bumps Stanback’s value as Montreal averages over eight receiving targets per game to members of their backfield. Having Pipkin in at quarterback seemed to give the Alouettes offence some semblance of effectiveness and a starting RB at $4.000 doesn’t have to do a lot to return value.
WIDE RECEIVER
Top Projected
Kamar Jorden, CGY – $8,416
Duke Williams, EDM – $8,016
Brandon Banks, HAM – $9,243
Derel Walker, EDM – $8,273
S.J. Green, TOR – $6,790
Jalen Saunders, HAM – $7,356
DaVaris Daniels, CGY – $5,916
Chris Williams, HAM – $4,241
Punt Singles
Vidal Hazelton, EDM – $3,697
Jordan Williams-Lambert, SSK – $3,496
Shaq Evans, SSK – $2,500
Kenbrell Thompkins, WPG – $2,500
Anthony Coombs, TOR – $3,030
Mario Alford, TOR – $2,500
While the running back position projects well, it appears to be a down week for receivers. Jorden is an exception to this observation as he tops the receiver projections for the first time this season outside an Edmonton bye week. Jorden is the most targeted receiver in the Stamps offence without Eric Rogers around. His teammate Daniels had the big Week 10 showing with a pair of touchdowns, but Jorden is the more consistent contributor in the Stamps offence that leads the league in plays of 30 yards or more with 22. The matchup with Winnipeg is not one generally chosen to pick on, but in a down week at the position it’s acceptable.
The usual duo atop the projections is the Williams/Walker combo out of Edmonton, but the Hamilton secondary appears to be drastically improved this season and presents the second most difficult matchup for opposing passing games this season in terms of yards per pass attempt allowed. Also working against the Edmonton offence is the expected pace. Hamilton and Edmonton are both tied allowing a league-low 52 plays per game to opposing offences. This week’s pace projections hold down the mean projections for all players in this game as their opportunities will be more limited than usual. The ceilings for both Williams and Walker remain high but it will have to come from unusual efficiency rather than significant workloads.
Despite the tough matchup, Kamar Jorden is the highest-projected receiver in Week 11 (The Canadian Press)
The group of Hamilton receivers suffers a similar fate to the Edmonton group as the pace projections knock their target projections down. Banks, Saunders, Williams and the rest of the Ticats receiving corps get the benefit of an Edmonton secondary allowing an above average 8.36 yards per pass attempt, but their workloads will likely be limited. It’s fair to pay up for the ceiling that a player like Banks offers due to his big play ability but it’s a lower mean projection this week due to diminished opportunities.
In an enticing matchup for opposing receivers last week and coming off a nine-catch, 134-yard, two touchdown explosion versus Ottawa, Green had a disappointing outing versus BC with only 4.8 Fantasy points. This kind of inconsistency has been the story of his 2018 season. The matchup with Montreal this week is enough to make Green worth taking a risk on as they are the most inviting matchup in the league in terms of yardage and touchdowns for receivers, but Green is still certainly a risk.
If you are churning around the bottom of the receiver bargain barrel this week for some Bryant Mitchell leftovers, you are too late. They’re expired. Mitchell appears headed to the bench this week with the return of Hazelton to the starting lineup. Hazelton is a good option in his own right at only $3,697 and projects as the best value at WR this week. The next top value at the position is Williams-Lambert, who comes off his 10-catch, 152-yard performance versus the vaunted Stampeders defence. His price tag is lower, but his performance also seems like more of a statistical outlier. Hazelton is certainly the more proven performer.
Williams-Lambert’s teammate (Evans) is another cheap option who, although he didn’t have the fanfare of a 10-catch outing, was a consistent contributor to the Riders offence. If players are looking to take advantage of the Argonauts’ matchup with Montreal both Coombs and Alford seemed to have significant roles in the Toronto offence in their first action of 2018.
DEFENCE
Top Projected
Saskatchewan Roughriders – $5,740
Toronto Argonauts – $3,633
The Riders defence won Fantasy competitions seemingly on their own last week with a two-touchdown performance versus the previously undefeated Stampeders in Week 10. The price tag is prohibitive but if players are going cheap with Macbeth, Stanback and bargain receivers, then the Riders unit is certainly a consideration. The Lions allow a higher than average number of sacks (17) and turnovers (19), so it may be another solid opportunity for the big play Rider defence.
If players are looking for a cheap option to plug into the defence spot, the Argos draw an enviable matchup with Montreal that continues to score the fewest points per game this season (16). The Argos defence continues to struggle in the counting stats department with a league low nine sacks and a second worst 14 forced turnovers but they are the best option of the $3K crowd.
STACKS
Bethel-Thompson >Wilder Jr., Coombs, Alford, Green
Stacking quarterbacks and receivers versus the Alouettes has been the path to victory all season. Wilder is probably the most consistent target in the offence despite starting at running back but it’s worth considering a double stack of Macbeth, Wilder, and one of the cheap Toronto receivers. Green is not for the faint of heart but could the top receiver on the slate.
Reilly >Williams, Hazelton
With Walker likely to draw a heavy dose of Delvin Breaux at boundary corner, more targets are likely to be funneled Williams’ way. Hazelton is a great cheap option this week and may make a better value stack with Reilly allowing players to pay up elsewhere.
Mitchell >Jorden
The Stamps’ big play ability may be the deciding factor in their matchup with Winnipeg this week. Let other folks chase points from Daniels’ big Week 10 outing and stick with the more consistent contributor in Jorden.
WEEK 11 PROJECTIONS
QUARTERBACKS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Pass Attempts | Rush Carries |
| Mike REILLY | QB | $14,000.00 | EDM | HAM | 28.10 | 2.01 | 34.98 | 5.80 |
| Mcleod BETHEL-THOMPSON | QB | $6,000.00 | TOR | MTL | 24.56 | 4.09 | 39.10 | 2.50 |
| Bo Levi MITCHELL | QB | $8,828.00 | CGY | WPG | 20.90 | 2.37 | 33.70 | 0.58 |
| Jeremiah MASOLI | QB | $10,007.00 | HAM | EDM | 19.75 | 1.97 | 32.29 | 3.50 |
| Travis LULAY | QB | $6,626.00 | BC | SSK | 16.43 | 2.48 | 31.97 | 1.30 |
| Matt NICHOLS | QB | $8,583.00 | WPG | CGY | 14.94 | 1.74 | 30.37 | 1.70 |
| Zach COLLAROS | QB | $5,472.00 | SSK | BC | 13.82 | 2.53 | 32.23 | 0.90 |
| Antonio PIPKIN | QB | $5,000.00 | MTL | TOR | 13.15 | 2.63 | 29.39 | 4.10 |
| James FRANKLIN | QB | $8,258.00 | TOR | MTL | 3.62 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| Chris STREVELER | QB | $4,489.00 | WPG | CGY | 3.40 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 3.90 |
| Cody FAJARDO | QB | $5,000.00 | BC | SSK | 1.74 | 0.35 | 1.70 |
RUNNING BACKS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns |
| Andrew HARRIS | RB | $10,288.00 | WPG | CGY | 19.28 | 1.87 | 13.50 | 5.50 | ||
| James WILDER JR. | RB | $9,125.00 | TOR | MTL | 18.52 | 2.03 | 14.10 | 5.10 | ||
| Alex GREEN | RB | $7,214.00 | HAM | EDM | 16.83 | 2.33 | 12.80 | 3.50 | ||
| William STANBACK | RB | $4,000.00 | MTL | TOR | 16.45 | 4.11 | 11.10 | 4.40 | 3.00 | |
| Jeremiah JOHNSON | RB | $7,523.00 | BC | SSK | 16.39 | 2.18 | 12.00 | 3.30 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| C.J. GABLE | RB | $7,237.00 | EDM | HAM | 14.82 | 2.05 | 14.00 | 3.30 | ||
| Don JACKSON | RB | $6,140.00 | CGY | WPG | 13.42 | 2.19 | 14.00 | 2.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tre MASON | RB | $4,064.00 | SSK | BC | 11.76 | 2.89 | 13.00 | 4.30 | ||
| Chris RAINEY | RB | $6,714.00 | BC | SSK | 11.47 | 1.71 | 3.30 | 2.80 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Terry WILLIAMS | RB | $4,580.00 | CGY | WPG | 8.91 | 1.95 | 5.10 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Marcus THIGPEN | RB | $5,286.00 | SSK | BC | 7.64 | 1.45 | 6.50 | 2.10 | ||
| Sean THOMAS ERLINGTON | RB | $3,000.00 | HAM | EDM | 6.63 | 2.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | |
| Christion JONES | RB | $3,175.00 | SSK | BC | 6.34 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Martese JACKSON | RB | $3,461.00 | TOR | MTL | 6.32 | 1.83 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Declan CROSS | RB | $2,500.00 | TOR | MTL | 5.44 | 2.17 | 0.00 | 2.60 |
WIDE RECEIVERS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns |
| Kamar JORDEN | WR | $8,416.00 | CGY | WPG | 18.69 | 2.22 | 0.10 | 8.10 | 0.00 | |
| D’haquille WILLIAMS | WR | $8,016.00 | EDM | HAM | 16.92 | 2.11 | 0.00 | 8.80 | ||
| Brandon BANKS | WR | $9,243.00 | HAM | EDM | 16.36 | 1.77 | 0.03 | 8.00 | 0.00 | |
| Derel WALKER | WR | $8,273.00 | EDM | HAM | 16.05 | 1.94 | 0.15 | 7.80 | ||
| S.J. GREEN | WR | $6,790.00 | TOR | MTL | 14.44 | 2.13 | 0.00 | 9.50 | ||
| Jalen SAUNDERS | WR | $7,356.00 | HAM | EDM | 14.28 | 1.94 | 0.04 | 6.80 | ||
| Vidal HAZELTON | WR | $3,697.00 | EDM | HAM | 13.22 | 3.58 | 0.00 | 6.50 | ||
| DaVaris DANIELS | WR | $5,916.00 | CGY | WPG | 12.69 | 2.15 | 0.10 | 6.10 | ||
| Jordan WILLIAMS-LAMBERT | WR | $3,496.00 | SSK | BC | 12.24 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 6.50 | ||
| Chris WILLIAMS | WR | $4,241.00 | HAM | EDM | 11.76 | 2.77 | 0.00 | 5.20 | 4.00 | |
| Luke TASKER | WR | $5,922.00 | HAM | EDM | 11.73 | 1.98 | 0.00 | 6.20 | ||
| Emmanuel ARCENEAUX | WR | $5,671.00 | BC | SSK | 11.64 | 2.05 | 0.02 | 7.10 | ||
| Bryan BURNHAM | WR | $6,042.00 | BC | SSK | 11.36 | 1.88 | 0.04 | 6.10 | ||
| Darvin ADAMS | WR | $6,974.00 | WPG | CGY | 11.05 | 1.58 | 0.04 | 6.90 | ||
| Kenny STAFFORD | WR | $4,869.00 | EDM | HAM | 10.93 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 6.10 | ||
| Naaman ROOSEVELT | WR | $5,414.00 | SSK | BC | 10.37 | 1.92 | 0.00 | 6.30 | ||
| Marken MICHEL | WR | $4,846.00 | CGY | WPG | 10.31 | 2.13 | 0.05 | 5.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| B.J. CUNNINGHAM | WR | $4,966.00 | MTL | TOR | 10.12 | 2.04 | 0.05 | 6.40 | ||
| Kevin ELLIOTT | WR | $3,683.00 | BC | SSK | 9.75 | 2.65 | 0.00 | 6.10 | ||
| Armanti EDWARDS | WR | $4,208.00 | TOR | MTL | 8.70 | 2.07 | 0.00 | 4.90 | ||
| Shaq EVANS | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | BC | 8.54 | 3.42 | 0.00 | 6.50 | 0.00 | |
| Kenbrell THOMPKINS | WR | $2,500.00 | WPG | CGY | 8.51 | 3.40 | 0.00 | 5.50 | ||
| Nic DEMSKI | WR | $5,372.00 | WPG | CGY | 8.44 | 1.57 | 1.90 | 4.90 | ||
| Anthony COOMBS | WR | $3,030.00 | TOR | MTL | 8.02 | 2.65 | 0.00 | 5.70 | ||
| Geno LEWIS | WR | $2,715.00 | MTL | TOR | 7.55 | 2.78 | 0.16 | 4.00 | ||
| Mario ALFORD | WR | $2,500.00 | TOR | MTL | 6.93 | 2.77 | 0.00 | 5.50 | 2.00 | |
| Juwan BRESCACIN | WR | $2,524.00 | CGY | WPG | 6.51 | 2.58 | 0.00 | 3.10 | ||
| Rodney SMITH | WR | $2,500.00 | TOR | MTL | 6.41 | 2.56 | 0.00 | 4.30 | ||
| Ernest JACKSON | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | TOR | 5.71 | 2.28 | 0.05 | 4.60 | ||
| Adarius BOWMAN | WR | $2,600.00 | MTL | TOR | 5.66 | 2.18 | 0.00 | 5.10 | ||
| Chris HARPER | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | TOR | 5.36 | 2.15 | 0.00 | 4.10 | ||
| Terrence TOLIVER | WR | $5,484.00 | HAM | EDM | 5.32 | 0.97 | 0.00 | 2.70 | ||
| Jamill SMITH | WR | $2,789.00 | EDM | HAM | 5.29 | 1.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Drew WOLITARSKY | WR | $2,500.00 | WPG | CGY | 4.97 | 1.99 | 0.00 | 3.30 | ||
| Mike JONES | WR | $2,500.00 | HAM | EDM | 4.60 | 1.84 | 0.00 | 3.00 | ||
| Cory WATSON | WR | $2,500.00 | BC | SSK | 4.55 | 1.82 | 0.00 | 2.80 | ||
| Natey ADJEI | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | HAM | 4.07 | 1.63 | 0.00 | 2.60 | ||
| Richard SINDANI | WR | $2,500.00 | CGY | WPG | 3.91 | 1.56 | 0.00 | 1.80 | ||
| Lemar DURANT | WR | $2,629.00 | CGY | WPG | 2.89 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 4.10 | ||
| Joshua STANFORD | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | BC | 2.85 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 2.50 | ||
| Ryan LANKFORD | WR | $2,946.00 | WPG | CGY | 2.31 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| George JOHNSON | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | TOR | 0.46 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
