CFL Simulation: There can only be one

TORONTO — Six teams, nine potential Grey Cup matchups. And with that, only one will remain standing when the final seconds tick off the clock in Edmonton on Nov. 25 for the Grey Cup.

That’s what the math tells us heading into the 106th Grey Cup Playoffs, which kicks off Sunday with games in Hamilton and Regina before shifting to Calgary and Ottawa on Nov. 18.

CFL Simulation returns for the post-season, giving us a break down of the odds that each playoff team has in their pursuit for the 106th Grey Cup in Edmonton, and the dream of raising the prized trophy over their head.

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While the Calgary Stampeders seem to have been the most dominant team throughout the course of the season, the simulator sees their late-season slump speak volumes as their odds have significantly dropped in the latter part of the regular season, however, they do maintain the highest odds of winning the championship (45.93%).

The REDBLACKS appear to have the most likely chance of making their way to the Grey Cup, topping the charts with an 82.98% chance of making it out of the East Division. Just how much weight that carries with the simulation is unknown, however, especially when you take in consideration just how close the race was in the West Division, which went right down to the wire to determine the West Division playoff bracket.

It’s no surprise, then, that a Calgary-Ottawa Grey Cup is the likeliest of all scenarios according to the simulation. But what other matchups could loom large?

We break it down in this week’s simulation.

The model considers the following:

•             Each team’s current win-loss record.
•             Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
•             Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
•             Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
•             Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule.  The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins.  For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the West Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.