July 17, 2019

Start vs. Sit: Air over ground in Week 6

Trevor Harris makes a pass in the first half of Edmonton's Week 5 meeting with the Lions. (Jimmy Jeong, CFL.ca)

Fantasy users should consider taking to the skies in Week 6 of TSN CFL Fantasy Football Presented by Leo Vegas. Four of the six highest-salaried running backs face off against top-five run defences, and the team that plays against the worst run defence is a potential timeshare.

Quality usually rises to the occasion, yet there are a couple of runners already with boom-bust potential that only make the waters choppier to navigate.

There’s room for a sleeper or two at the position. However, Fantasy users who see the most success this week will be the ones who can parlay a QB/WR stack along with pinpoint accuracy when knowing which back to start and which back to avoid.

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» Prediction Time: The writers make their picks
» Week 6 Fantasy Rankings

Toronto at Calgary
Thursday | 9:00 p.m. ET

LeoVegas Odds
Line: CGY (-12.5)
O/U: 52.5

Start: Terry Williams, RB, Stampeders, $5,009 Salary

Ka’Deem Carey ($4,500) remains a presence in the Calgary backfield despite last week’s clunker of six yards on three carries, although he did score a major. Williams had five carries for a mere 15 yards against the Ticats, but ended up with 12 all-purpose touches for 146 yards.

Toronto owns the league’s worst run defence, allowing 153.3 yards per game and 6.1 yards per attempt, numbers that strongly suggest Williams could do damage even with a limited number of carries. The Argos have also allowed a league-high six big-play returns that include a pair of majors, making Williams a very solid play that could net 200 all-purpose yards and a big play or two either from scrimmage or in the return game.

Sit: James Wilder Jr., RB, Argonauts, $8,780 Salary

Establishing a run game is hard when down three scores early. Such is life for Wilder and a Toronto ground attack that is last in both attempts (48) and yards per game (53.8). The Argos are also the only team in the league that has yet to record a rushing touchdown. All of this is bad, but having to go against a Stamps defence that allows just 92.8 yards per game and a league-low 3.8 yards per carry makes playing Wilder a massive risk.

Yes, Wilder will contribute (at least 7.9 receiving points the last three games), but his salary is too high to justify using him in what could likely be another long night for the winless Argonauts.

Ottawa at Winnipeg
Friday | 8:30 p.m. ET

LeoVegas Odds
Line: WPG (-10.5)
O/U: 54.5

Start: Winnipeg Defence, $5,029 Salary

The Blue Bombers lead the league with 15 turnovers and get the added bonus of facing new REDBLACKS starting pivot Jonathon Jennings ($6,993) that they held to 0.8 Fantasy points the last time they played against him in Week 4 of last season. Winnipeg allows 322 passing yards per game, but much of those yards stem from opponents having to play catch-up early and abandoning their run games.

The Bombers have allowed only four offensive touchdowns thus far and are third in opponents’ average pass (7.7), and though they have recorded a modest total of six sacks, they’ll put enough pressure on Jennings to force him into looking like the error-prone passer he has been the past two seasons (26 interceptions).

Sit: Brad Sinopoli, WR, REDBLACKS, $7,611 Salary

The change from Dominique Davis ($6,272) to Jennings could be a boon for Sinopoli, who has become the forgotten man in Ottawa’s passing game. Sinopoli comes into Friday’s game with just 10 receptions for 86 yards over the past three contests and is fourth on the team with 26 targets. It’s painfully obvious Sinopoli misses the explosiveness of Greg Ellingson and Diontae Spencer, as the offence has just five completions of better than 30 yards and is last in pass efficiency (75.1), and while Sinopoli isn’t a deep threat, that his longest reception is 24 yards is another indictment against a sputtering offence.

Jonathon Jennings will make his first start with the REDBLACKS this weekend (Freestyle Photography/OttawaREDBLACKS)

Edmonton at Montreal
Saturday | 4:00 p.m. ET

LeoVegas Odds
Line: EDM (-6.5)
O/U: 54.5

Start: DaVaris Daniels, WR, Eskimos, $7,902 Salary

Daniels had four catches for 53 yards and a touchdown in his debut with Edmonton last week. He will be in line for bigger numbers now that he and Trevor Harris ($11,761) have established a rapport. The Alouettes have been suspect against the deep ball this season, as opposing pivots have completed a league-high 52 per cent of their passes of 30-plus yards and three touchdowns, and if the Eskimos can exploit Montreal’s opponents’ average pass of 10 yards, chances are good that if will be Daniels benefiting.

Sit: Vernon Adams, Jr., QB, Alouettes, $7,775 Salary

For starters, it’s a high bar for Adams, who comes off a 37.2 Fantasy point effort in last week’s win over Ottawa. He’s accounted for six majors in the past two games without throwing an interception and has thrived behind the running of William Stanback ($8,691), but attempting to spark up a third straight win will be a challenge since the Eskimos give up a league-low 174.3 passing yards per game and 57.4 per cent completion rate. Edmonton is also second against the run (80.8 ), further impacting what Adams could do as a runner.

BC at Saskatchewan
Saturday | 7:00 p.m. ET

LeoVegas Odds
Line: SSK (-4.5)
O/U: 50.5

Start: Saskatchewan Defence, $4,580 Salary

Only the Argonauts (14.8) have scored fewer points per game than the Lions, who come in at 20.4. They’re not moving the ball efficiently, managing a league-low 305 yards per outing as the offensive line has allowed a league-high 17 sacks. That translates into a long evening for Mike Reilly ($10,708), who averages a mere 251.2 yards in the air.

The Roughriders have recorded 12 sacks but the opportunistic defence that generated excitement throughout 2018 has only three turnovers forced. Despite that, they are perhaps the best play in a game that projects to be low-scoring.

Sit: Mike Reilly, QB, Lions, $10,708 Salary

The Life of Reilly isn’t playing to good reviews in its new time slot. Only once has he eclipsed 20 Fantasy points and has just one game of multiple passing majors. Nowhere are his struggles more defined than his ability to throw the deep ball, where Reilly is completing only 28.1 per cent of his attempts with four of his five interceptions resulting from those tosses. Although Reilly leads the league with 168 pass attempts, those throws have not delivered the magic Lions fans were hoping for.