Start vs. Sit: Bet on Sinopoli against Argos

Brandon C. Williams

CFL.ca

Week 13 of TSN CFL Fantasy Football Presented by Leo Vegas brings change at pivot in Ottawa while Calgary may have found their running back. This week also offers a strong value play to consider starting and a strong sit at quarterback.

BC at Montreal

Friday | 7:30 p.m. ET

Line: Montreal (-4)
O/U: 47.5

Start: Eugene Lewis, WR, Alouettes, $7,065 Salary

After a sluggish start of the regular season, Lewis has regained the big-play element he displayed at the end of 2018 regular season, catching 13 passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns over the past two games while accumulating 44 Fantasy points in the process. On paper, the Lions have been solid against the pass, ranking third in fewest passing yards (248.2 yards per game) and completions (213). However, it’s the deep ball that caused the most trouble for BC, which has allowed 10 touchdowns and a 134.7 efficiency rating on pass attempts of better than 20 yards in depth. Lewis has at least one catch of better than 20 yards in four of his last five games, and his continuing rapport with quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. ($10,666) should make five of six.

Sit: Wayne Moore, RB, Lions, $2,500 Salary

Week 12 saw Winnipeg’s Johnny Augustine ($4,500) and Calgary’s Ka’Deem Carey ($5,385) deliver as value plays. The same won’t be said for Moore, who could get the start in a banged-up Lions backfield that includes John White ($6,339) and Brandon Rutley ($4,464). Moore had 36 yards on nine carries and caught two passes in place of an injured White in the Week 11 loss to Hamilton, yet is running behind a beleaguered offensive line that has led BC to just 86.1 yards per game (seventh) and a mere 4.9 yards per carry. The Als have also greatly improved their run defence from 2018, entering Week 13 as the fourth-best run D in the league at 95.9 yards per game and have allowed just seven rushing majors this season.

Toronto at Ottawa

Saturday | 1:00 p.m. ET

Line: Ottawa (-10.5)
O/U: 49

Start: Brad Sinopoli, WR, REDBLACKS, $6,273 Salary

The installation of Jonathon Jennings ($5,887) brings good news for Sinopoli. After all, two of the best games of his frustrating season have been when Jennings took the bulk of the snaps. Jennings also happens to the pivot who has thrown both of Sinopoli’s majors this year, so it stands to reason the duo should be able to exploit an Argonauts pass defence that has allowed a league-high 20 touchdown passes. Toronto is also last in the league in completions of better than 30-plus yards, a fact that should perk up Sinopoli, who has yet to record a reception longer than 26 yards this season.

Sit: James Wilder Jr., RB, Argonauts, $8,941 Salary

While the Argos’ passing game has come alive under pivot McLeod Bethel-Thompson ($9,334), Wilder has yet to get on track, managing just 3.9 yards per carry on his 45 rushing attempts. He has yet to record a run of longer than 19 yards and has not topped the 60-yard mark in either of his six games this season. Although he is still effective as a receiver, averaging 9.6 yards per catch with two touchdowns, Wilder’s salary doesn’t translate into value. With the way he’s running the ball, Fantasy users would need him to have a monster day as a receiver in order to justify having him on the roster.

Saskatchewan at Winnipeg

Saturday | 4:00 p.m. ET

Line: Saskatchewan (-4)
O/U: 48.5

Start: Saskatchewan Defence, $6,100 Salary

The Roughriders recorded three sacks, two interceptions and a safety against the Blue Bombers in Week 12, and with Winnipeg quarterback Chris Streveler ($7,463) having managed just 10 Fantasy points via passing in his two starts since replacing Matt Nichols ($8,005), Fantasy users can afford to pay a high premium on the Saskatchewan D. The Riders have just two defensive majors this season after recording 11 last season, but the unit that has allowed a league-low 14 offensive touchdowns has plenty of potential to turn any given play into either a Pick or Scoop-6.

Sit: Cody Fajardo, QB, Roughriders, $8,080 Salary

Between Streveler and Fajardo, the Banjo Bowl won’t be strumming with touchdown passes. Fajardo has thrown just three touchdown passes since Week 6, which was also the last time he produced better than 15.1 Fantasy points via passing. Winnipeg is just as selfish when it comes to allowing majors, giving up just 15 thus far, so unless Fajardo generates a score or two on the ground, his Fantasy numbers will continue to suffer no matter how many yards he tallies.

His lack of throwing touchdowns continues to have an impact on the value of receivers Shaquelle Evans ($7,168), who finally snapped a four-game touchdown skid last week, and Kyran Moore ($6,513), who has not scored since Week 7.

Calgary at Edmonton

Saturday | 7:00 p.m. ET

Line: Calgary (-6)
O/U: 54.5

Start: Ka’Deem Carey, RB, Stampeders, $5,385 Salary

Could Don Jackson ($6,262) be the Calgary version of Wally Pipp? Carey’s 143 yards on just 16 carries against the Eskimos on Labour Day might be the jolt of football coffee that wakes up the Stamps’ ground attack, which is still ranked eighth in the league at 85.2 yards per game. While Carey did not catch a pass on Monday, he can be a productive receiver, averaging 9.1 yards per reception. Edmonton won’t be caught flat-footed against Carey, but he deserves must-start status not only because of his value. Carey nearly went the distance on 2-4 of his attempts, and the bet here is that he does so on Saturday.

Sit: Trevor Harris, QB, Eskimos, $11,784 Salary

The 20-plus completions are a given. It’s everything else that’s not when it comes to Harris and the Stampeders defence, which held him to a season-low 8.2 Fantasy points on Labour Day. Since opening the 2017 regular season with 725 passing yards and five touchdowns tosses in consecutive games against Calgary, Harris has managed three touchdowns and seven interceptions against the Stamps D in five straight losses between his time in Ottawa and Edmonton. After producing three plays of better than 30 yards against the Calgary pass defence in Week 8, Harris had a paltry 6.2 yards per attempt on Labour Day. The price and projected production don’t mix well for Fantasy success.

Follow CFL