Week 12 Fantasy projections: Seeking reliability

The 2021 CFL season has been one without many reliable options for fantasy purposes. No player has been a lock for consistent production on a week-to-week basis, and Week 12 in the CFL schedule doesn’t make that much easier. Options at every position come with significant caveats. It will be up to fantasy players to wade through which risks they are willing to take to put together a winning lineup in Week 12 of CFL Fantasy.

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At $8,416, the Als’ Matt Shiltz is a fantasy bargain but he’ll be going up against a Chris Jones-led Argos’ defence that will be hunting for turnovers (Geoff Robins/CFL.ca)

QUARTERBACK

McLeod Bethel-Thompson, TOR – $10,368
Matthew Shiltz, MTL – $8,416
Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $9,655

Punt Single
Caleb Evans, OTT – $5,431

It’s been an up-and-down season for Bethel-Thompson, posting two games over 20 fantasy points and two games with single-digit production. His most recent effort versus a solid Hamilton Tiger-Cats’ defence gave him his largest passing volume of the year, throwing for 388 yards and a pair of touchdowns. His matchup this week with Montreal Alouettes should give fantasy players optimism as Alouettes’ defence allowed an above-average 8.4 yards per pass attempt this season, which leads Toronto to project for 8.7 yards per attempt in Week 12.

Given Toronto’s propensity to score their touchdowns through the air and Montreal’s propensity to allow just that, Bethel-Thompson projects for the second-most touchdowns per pass attempt this week, making him a solid play. He must justify a salary of more than $10,000 for a player with just two games over 20 fantasy points this season.

Montreal Alouettes’ quarterback Matt Shiltz feels like a risky play with similarly apparent upside. The Alouettes have been the most efficient passing offence in the league in terms of yards and scores and they didn’t seem to miss a beat with Shiltz under centre through the first half of their Week 11 game with Ottawa.

However, the second half was a different story as the Alouettes’ offence ground to a halt. Their trade for quarterback Trevor Harris shortly thereafter may or may not have come as a result. Montreal’s offence is third in the league in yards per pass attempt (8.36) and first in TDs per pass attempt, so there is potential for a high scoring output versus the Argos, who have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns per attempt in 2021. Bethel-Thompson has a better track record, but Shiltz has a better salary. It’s a tough decision up top in the QB rankings.

Like Bethel-Thompson, Jeremiah Masoli is coming off his best game of the season, a Week 10 shootout with Toronto. Masoli’s passer production rates in 2021 are down about 40 per cent from his career rates. However, his breakout against Toronto was much needed but unexpected. At pure 2021 rates, Masoli projects for 15.4 fantasy points this week, while at career rates, he’d project for 22.9 fantasy points. The decline this season has been that inexplicably steep.

In a matchup versus Ottawa, there is reason to be optimistic that he can produce closer to his ceiling than his floor as the REDBLACKS have allowed the most passing yards (8.98) and touchdowns per attempt this season. There are no “safe” options at quarterback this week, so it’s a matter of deciding which risk is best worth taking.

Given a few lacklustre outings in a row for Evans, it may be time for a quarterback change again in Ottawa. Hodges is expected to be available in Week 12 for the REDBLACKS as open auditions continue at the position in the nation’s capital. Either Evans or Hodges presents significant salary relief options at the position, but the matchup with Hamilton is one to avoid.

We haven’t seen a lot of him this season, but Brady Oliveira has shown that he’s fully capable of leading a ground attack for the Bombers when Andrew Harris has been out (Jason Halstead/CFL.ca)

RUNNING BACK
William Stanback, MTL – $8,974
D.J. Foster, TOR – $5,116
Brady Oliveira, WPG – $5,100

William Stanback was expected to make a victorious return to the field against Ottawa in Week 11 after missing his Week 10 game with a rib injury. However, food poisoning pushed his return back for at least one more week. He should be able to make a full recovery in time for Montreal’s matchup with Toronto on Friday night.

Montreal is the best rushing team in the league, with the most projected rush attempts (24.9) and most projected rush yards per attempt (6.18) in Week 12. Even Stanback’s price is reasonable given his skill set and projected volume and efficiency. The only thing that may hold him back is if the whole offence bogs down with Shiltz under centre versus the Argonauts.

On the other side of the ball, D.J. Foster had an enormous game in Week 10 against Ottawa as the lone man in the Argonauts’ backfield, but then had a terrible time trying to get any traction later in Week 10 versus Hamilton in a backfield split with A.J. Ouellette. Most running backs have had a difficult time versus the Tiger-Cats this season. This week’s matchup with Montreal is significantly more appealing, with the Alouettes allowing the most yard per rush attempt (5.3) in the CFL.

Foster’s consistent involvement as a receiver also bodes well for his production. His current projection expects him to be the lead back in tandem with Ouellette, but if John White returns to action, his workload may slip a bit down to the 10-touch range instead of the 14 he is currently projected. The Toronto depth chart should hold the answers fantasy players will need on Thursday.

Brady Oliveira may not have the matchup upside of Stanback or the receiving upside of Foster, but his combination of salary relief, projected volume and implied team total (26.75) will likely make him the most-used player in Week 12 CFL Fantasy lineups.

The matchup with BC isn’t ideal, as they allow the third-fewest yards per carry (4.63) and the lowest rate of rushing touchdowns per attempt so far in 2021. However, a $5,000 running back in the Winnipeg offence is difficult to pass up. In Harris’s absence, Oliveira should be leaned on heavily by the Bombers’ offence in what projects to be a positive game script for a run-heavy attack as heavy favourites on Saturday.

The numbers haven’t been fully there for him yet since he returned from injury but Ticats’ receiver Bralon Addison seems primed for a breakout game (Geoff Robins/CFL.ca)

RECEIVER

Jake Wieneke, MTL – $10,378
Bralon Addison, HAM – $10,818
Kenny Lawler, WPG – $8,907
Eugene Lewis, MTL – $10,421
Nic Demski, WPG – $7,445
Shaq Evans, SSK – $7,156
Bryan Burnham, BC – $10,478
Eric Rogers, TOR – $8,760
Rasheed Bailey, WPG – $5,919
Chandler Worthy, TOR – $5,496

Punt Single(s):
Steven Dunbar, HAM – $3,673
Nick Holley, CGY – $2,500
Keon Hatcher, BC – $2,637

In a season where no player has put together a solid case for being the Most Outstanding Player 11 weeks into the season, Jake Wieneke may well be your 2021 CFL MOP. His ability to make dazzling plays and score touchdowns every single week has been unmatched this season. His production per target is higher than Brandon Banks produced in his 2019 MOP campaign and is among the highest of any receiver in the era of CFL fantasy contests.

His matchup with the Argonauts in Week 12 doesn’t leap off the page as one worth attacking, as Toronto allows around league average rates of yards and touchdowns per target to opposing receivers. In a year of inconsistent play, Wieneke’s consistent production is difficult to overlook. His teammate Eugene Lewis has a similar opportunity score – a 0.62 WOPR as opposed to Wieneke’s 0.59 according to slotbacklabs.com – and both rank in the top-three in the league.

It’s impossible for them both to pay off their $10,000 salaries in the same game, so it’s wise for fantasy players to pick one at most and then fill out the rest of the lineup from other passing attacks. Unfortunately, it seems B.J. Cunningham and Quan Bray are essentially unusable for fantasy purposes at this point, given their roles in the Montreal offence.

Bralon Addison may not have had huge fantasy outputs since his return to the starting lineup in Week 10, but the underlying metrics show he’s primed for a breakout any week. He has averaged nine targets a game and continues to get multiple carries a game out of the backfield as well. His slotbacklabs.com WOPR is just a hair behind the Montreal duo of wide receivers at 0.58.

On Saturday, his matchup with the REDBLACKS is ideal, with Ottawa allowing the most yards and touchdowns per target to opposing receivers this season. Addison is a dependable option at wide receiver in Week 12, but the investment in his $10,000 salary demands it. His teammate Steven Dunbar comes in much less expensively and makes an excellent double stack with Masoli and Addison, or as a cheap one-off for fantasy players looking to get exposure to the REDBLACKS’ defence. Dunbar’s big-play potential makes it possible to pay off his salary in one catch, but his 5.7 targets per game give him opportunities to grind out value the hard way as well. Tim White and Jaelon Acklin are more expensive options than Dunbar with similar usage and should be considered secondary options.

In his Week 9 matchup with BC, Lawler put up a massive 12-205-1 stat line for 38.5 fantasy points. It’s impossible to expect him to do the same thing again, but with a salary under $9,000, even half of the Week 9 production would be a reasonable outcome. His targets have been less consistent than other top salaried players like Wieneke, Lewis and Addison, but his ceiling may be even higher.

The Lions’ defence has been a league-average matchup for opposing receivers, though and the game script tends to skew more run-heavy as Winnipeg is a strong 11.5-point favourite on BetRegal, so there’s some reason to temper expectations for Lawler. His teammate Nic Demski may be having the best season of his career, and he comes at a near $1,500 discount to Lawler. Demski’s rapport with Zach Collaros is apparent, and his touches as a ball carrier each week help support his floor, making Demski an acceptable mid-tier option in Week 12. Wide receiver Rasheed Bailey is $1,500 cheaper and, with a similar target share to Demski, makes him a good value in the mid-tier price range.

Since his Week 2 departure to the injured reserve, the Riders’ passing attack has been largely ineffective without Shaq Evans. There have been glimmers of life around wide receiver Kian Schaffer-Baker, but the Riders pass for the third-fewest yards per target (7.29) and touchdowns per target in 2021, well down from their 2019 rates in which they were second-best in the league in terms of yards per target (8.93).

Not all of that can be blamed on Evans’ injury, but the importance of the additions of Shaq Evans and Duke Williams to the Riders’ receiving corps in Week 12 can’t be overstated. Williams’ 2018 receiving rates and Evans’ 2019 rates were both in the top-10 in the league those seasons and hopefully will bolster Fajardo’s reeling passing rates as only Masoli has a worse per attempt rate among current CFL starting QBs. The matchup with Calgary that looked appealing a month ago looks significantly less now after three consecutive solid outings versus the Riders and Lions. Fantasy players deploying Riders’ receivers this week are hoping that a return to health will be a return to 2019 efficiency.

For those looking to stack receivers with Bethel-Thompson, Toronto provides a plethora of options but none with consistent target shares that would justify the spending on their salaries. If Eric Rogers can return to the starting lineup, he would be the top-projected option for the Argos, but a salary near $9,000 feels steep for a player with only a 19 per cent projected target share. With eight players regularly receiving targets in the Toronto offence, it’s difficult for their receivers to project well. If Worthy continues to get some work returning kicks, he may be the safest option of the bunch, priced around $5,000. The matchup with Montreal is appealing, but the lack of consistent targets for any Argonauts’ receiver makes them difficult to rely on.

As for Lions receivers, it’s difficult to justify any receiver versus the Bombers. Burnham’s $10,000 salary is difficult to consider. Hatcher may be a punt option at minimum salary, but in his first start at boundary wide receiver in Week 11, he had just two receptions for 28 yards on three targets which is tough to get excited about versus Winnipeg.

DEFENCE

Hamilton Tiger-Cats – $4,050
Toronto Argonauts – $3,511

There are no minimum-priced defensive units that stick out going into Week 12, but Hamilton and Toronto are both reasonably priced options in their matchups. The Tiger-Cats face whomever the REDBLACKS’ offence rolls out under centre on Saturday, knowing that Ottawa has allowed a league-leading 38 sacks and 29 turnovers. On the other hand, Hamilton has forced 18 sacks and 22 turnovers to this point and looks like a great option at only $4,000.

Those opting for the cheaper Argos’ defence do so with the knowledge that Matt Shiltz still has a 1:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and the Argonauts have created six sacks and seven turnovers in the three games since Chris Jones arrived in Toronto. They are a little less proven option than Hamilton, but they also come at a discount.

STACKS

Jeremiah Masoli > Bralon Addison, Steven Dunbar

The REDBLACKS’ defence is fantasy gold for opposing offences and both Addison and Dunbar seem destined for success on Saturday. Masoli finally had the kind of performances CFL fantasy players had been expecting of him all season versus Toronto in Week 10. Hopefully, he can continue that success versus a much more susceptible unit in Ottawa.

Brady Oliveira > Winnipeg Defence

For a near $10,000 combined salary, there’s a fair chance of getting 40 fantasy points out of the equation. The Lions’ offence has struggled mightily without Whitehead in the lineup and are heavy underdogs versus the Bombers on Saturday. The Winnipeg defence has put up double-digit fantasy points in all but two games this season and has put up 12 or more points in over half of their games. In a game that seems to present a run-heavy game script in a lopsided affair, the Oliveira/Bombers stack is a cheap and efficient way to play the favourites.

WEEK 12 PROJECTIONS