Dave Chidley/CFL.ca
TORONTO — The Calgary Stampeders’ win over the East-leading Toronto Argonauts carried some weight in this week’s CFL Simulation.
With games weighted more late in the season, the Stamps’ 29-2 win over the Argos has the simulation a little smitten with them, as they improved to 10-5. The Stamps, despite losing three games earlier in the season to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and being three games behind them in the standings, have the best odds of winning the Grey Cup (40.64 per cent) and their odds of meeting the Argos in the 109th Grey Cup game this year are the best (34.35 per cent) of all possible scenarios.
Also notable in this week’s edition of the CFL Simulation:
-Saskatchewan and Edmonton cannot host a home playoff game (either the Western Semi-Final or Western Final) and are competing only for a crossover spot in the East.
-Calgary cannot finish first in the West. The race to host the 2022 Western Final is between Winnipeg and BC. Calgary and BC are in a battle to host the Western Semi-Final.
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Check out this week’s edition of the CFL Simulation and see what your team’s postseason odds are.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS |
|
| Team (Projected 2022 Record) | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (15-3) | C |
| Calgary Stampeders (13-5) | C |
| BC Lions (12-6) | C |
| Toronto Argonauts (11-7) | C |
| Montreal Alouettes (9-9) | 99.95% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (6-12) | 58.70% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-12) | 37.26% |
| Edmonton Elks (5-13) | 2.78% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (4-14) | 1.31% |
ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | C |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | C |
| Montreal Alouettes | 99.29% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 83.18% |
| BC Lions | 16.82% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.69% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.02% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO WIN EAST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 74.10% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 25.90% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | E |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | E |
ODDS TO WIN WEST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 97.22% |
| BC Lions | 2.78% |
| Calgary Stampeders | E |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO APPEAR IN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 70.45% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 48.77% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 47.41% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 25.83% |
| BC Lions | 3.83% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 3.42% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.26% |
| Edmonton Elks | 0.03% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | <0.01% |
ODDS TO WIN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 40.64% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 29.47% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 21.34% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 5.75% |
| BC Lions | 2.06% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.72% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.02% |
| Edmonton Elks | <0.01% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | <0.01% |
MOST LIKELY 109TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary-Toronto | 34.35% |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 33.41% |
| Calgary-Montreal | 12.58% |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 12.25% |
| BC-Toronto | 2.69% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
