Grey Expectations: Finding those take charge players

Thanksgiving Weekend presented by Purolator offers a time for reflection, memorable moments with loved ones and a time to feel the ever-changing weather. It also brings us to Week 18 of Grey Expectations, one that brings us to Round 2 of the season series in three of the week’s four matchups.

Fantasy users can reference the previous contests as a marker of sorts when putting together this week’s lineups, yet it would be helpful to build with a clear mind. Then again, when looking at this week’s player rankings, there are those whose production of late screams “just place my name in your lineup and I’ll do the rest.”

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Quarterbacks

The reigning MOP is making a strong case to repeat, as he’s thrown 10 TDs in his last three games, at a 300-plus-yard clip in that time (BlueBombers.com)

1. Zach Collaros, Winnipeg ($10,524): Exhibit A in just plug and play, Collaros is in Most Outstanding Player mode, having thrown 10 majors in his last three games while averaging 303.3 passing yards in that span. No pivot is more lethal than Collaros when throwing deep (19 TD passes have come from throws of more than 20 yards) as he leads the league with an average pass of 12.6 yards in depth. He’s delivered five games of better than 20 fantasy points this season, two of which have come in the past three contests. Seriously, do you really need more reasons why he’s atop this list?

2. Dane Evans, Hamilton ($8,150): Saskatchewan’s rapidly faltering pass defence runs headlong into a well-rested Tiger-Cats passing game that’s second in the league with 287.4 yards per game. Evans has a good opportunity to rebound from a tepid 11.6 FP effort in his Week 1 matchup against the Riders, having put up at least 288 yards in four of his last six starts. The Roughriders have allowed a league-high 25 passing majors and if Evans is the pivot he was in the Week 15 win over the Bombers (35.2 FP), air raid sirens might be heard at Tim Hortons Field on Friday night.

3. Vernon Adams Jr., BC ($6,939): There’s potential for ridiculous value in Adams, who delivered a season-best 24 fantasy points in last week’s win over the REDBLACKS. Adams ran for 38 yards last week and if that’s a sign that the Adams of 2019 is ready to appear, then buckle up and take your chances with him, despite the fact the Argos lead the league in fewest average passing yards allowed (7.7).

4. Taylor Cornelius, Edmonton ($10,580): Losing Kenny Lawler ($8,833) doesn’t help, but keep in mind Cornelius’ rise to fantasy prominence came without Lawler in the lineup. This week’s ranking is based on the mindset of Cornelius putting up numbers on Winnipeg’s seventh-ranked pass defence with Edmonton in catch-up mode. The Bombers don’t yield rushing majors frequently (league-low seven), so while Cornelius might add rushing yards to his total, don’t count on him rushing into the end zone.

5. Trevor Harris, Montreal ($8,745): Four of his 16 passing majors have come against Ottawa, but the problem with playing Harris is the fact the Alouettes are last in the league in passing yards per game. The conservative style of play takes away from what we know Harris is capable of and with the Als still clawing for a playoff berth, perhaps this is one of those weeks where Harris can take advantage of a defence ranked eighth in opponents’ pass efficiency (104.8).

6. McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Toronto ($8,568): He won’t be nearly as bad as he was in the previous matchup against the Lions (6.2 FP). The Argos’ passing game is much better yet the problem is that BC’s pass defence is still the league’s stingiest (247.7) by a considerable margin.

And Then There’s…

*Cody Fajardo, Saskatchewan ($9,628): Zero touchdown passes in four of his last six games. Ouch. Big time.

*Nick Arbuckle, Ottawa ($8,129): Showed some hints of promise last week.

*Caleb Evans, Ottawa ($5,971)

*Dominique Davis, Montreal ($5,028)

*Antonio Pipkin, BC ($6,814)

*Matthew Shiltz, Hamilton ($7,660)

*Dakota Prukop, Winnipeg ($5,028)

Running Backs

This photo of William Stanback sits here purely as a fantasy buff’s attempt at manifesting Stanback’s return to fruition (The Canadian Press)

1. Brady Oliveira, Winnipeg ($6,614): There would not be much of a shock if Oliveira runs through the Elks’ league-worst run defence on his way to his first 1,000-yard season. Oliveira needs just 142 yards and is coming off a 101-yard outing against the Roughriders last week. If the Bombers gave him 17-20 carries, there’s a good chance Oliveira could pull it off.

2. James Butler, BC ($8,236): The recent resurgence of Butler not only bodes well for the Lions. Fantasy users who have rode with Butler the past three games have received three majors while also getting 99 yards from scrimmage per game as well. If the BC passing game clicks early, the running lanes will be there for Butler to keep his run of solid production intact.

3. Kevin Brown, Edmonton ($5,467): Imagine his value if he had been able to score a major in his first four games that has seen the rookie average 80 rushing yards per outing and 100.5 yards from scrimmage. Running against the Blue Bombers’ defence presents his toughest challenge to date, but Brown has shown what he can do for both the Elks and fantasy users to where you just have to run with him until proven otherwise.

4. A.J. Ouellette, Toronto ($7,053): Ouellette averages 10 yards per catch and has become a go-to option in the Argos’ passing game. The 66 yards he tallied in last week’s loss to Calgary was a season-high, yet we get the sense Ouellette will deliver more as a receiver this week in a matchup against BC that will likely require a lot of scoring for Toronto to strengthen its East Division lead.

5. Devonte Williams, Ottawa ($5,685): There’s nothing flashy about Williams’ game yet he’s established himself as the REDBLACKS’ lead back the rest of the season. He’s rushed for at least 58 yards in four of his last five starts and has solid sleeper potential this week against a Montreal defence that allows a league-high 5.2 yards per carry.

6. William Stanback, Montreal ($7,604): He’s practising, so until it’s official we’ll leave the light on in hopes of a return, perhaps this week.

And Then There’s…

*Wes Hills, Hamilton ($4,000): Has quietly made the Ticats ground game more than an afterthought.

*Kienan Lafrance, Saskatchewan ($2,500): Jamal Morrow ($8,639) is practising this week, yet it feels as if the Riders will go at least one more week with Lafrance and newly-signed Shaq Cooper in the backfield.

*Walter Fletcher, Montreal ($4,467): Could be the final week we see him atop the Als depth chart.

*Jeshrun Antwi, Montreal ($5,167)

*Johnny Augustine, Winnipeg ($3,731)

*Greg McCrae, Winnipeg ($3,500)

*Jackson Bennett, Ottawa ($2,500)

*Ante Litre, Edmonton ($2,500)

*Sean Thomas-Erlington, Hamilton ($3,081)

*Daniel Adeboboye, Toronto ($3,500)

Receivers

If the chemistry is there with Dominique Rhymes and Vernon Adams Jr., the big fantasy totals could be back as soon as Saturday when the Lions face the Argos (BCLions.com)

1. Tim White, Hamilton ($10,969): Six straight games of double-digit fantasy points, five of which have seen White produce 17.7 FP or better. He’s caught at least six passes in the past five games, with three of those resulting in more than 100 receiving yards. Gladly anchor your lineup around White with the knowledge of him getting at least 10 targets this week.

2. Eugene Lewis, Montreal ($9,593): Halfway toward the league record of 10 straight games with a touchdown pass (Terry Evenshen, Calgary, 1967-1968), Lewis feels like a strong play this week. Not only did he score a major in the Week 7 meeting against Ottawa, he’s scored at least 10.8 fantasy points in all but two games this season.

3. Nic Demski, Winnipeg ($9,875): Like Lewis, Demski has scored receiving majors in five straight games and is on a stretch that has seen him tally at least 13.6 FP in that same stretch. He’s also scored at least 25.7 FP in three of those games as he helped take the focus off rookie Dalton Schoen ($7,643) as he and Zach Collaros have stalked opposing secondaries over the past month.

4. Dominique Rhymes, BC ($8,647): Despite having just one touchdown catch in the past six games, Rhymes should be ready to make a strong finish to the regular season now that Vernon Adams Jr. has entrenched himself as the starting pivot. Rhymes had his fifth 100-yard game of the season in last week’s win and faces a Toronto defence that he lit up for 34.3 FP in a Week 3 blowout.

5. Dillon Mitchell, Edmonton ($5,398): Mitchell is averaging 88.2 receiving yards in his last four games and will have the WR1 tag on him the remainder of the season. It will be very interesting to see if he can record a sixth straight game of at least one reception of 45 or more yards.

6. Dalton Schoen, Winnipeg ($7,643): Schoen remains the league’s most efficient receiver (147.3) in part due to how Demski has partnered with him in lighting up secondaries. There’s still enough time for Schoen to crack the top-five in most receiving majors by a first-year player.

7. Jaelon Acklin, Ottawa ($7,583): He has remained fairly consistent despite the struggles at pivot. Acklin comes into Week 18 having caught at least four passes in all but one game since Week 5.

8. Steven Dunbar Jr., Hamilton ($7,082): The majors haven’t come as frequently as they did early in the season (one in his last seven games) yet Dunbar has adjusted to being a worthy Plan B if Tim White isn’t open. He’s delivered at least 50 receiving yards in all but three games this year, a solid level of consistency.

9. Kurleigh Gittens Jr., Toronto ($8,177): We’re placing Gittens here because he’s much better than the four-catch, 36-yard dud he put up last week. He’s the most efficient of the Toronto receivers and has usually delivered when getting double-digit targets.

10. Keon Hatcher, BC ($5,711): With Lucky Whitehead ($7,751) possibly injured for Week 18, this could be a great week to add Hatcher to your lineup. If Whitehead is indeed out, Hatcher could be in line for double-digit targets. After finally snapping his touchdown drought last week, Hatcher, who has quietly been one of the most efficient receivers in the league, is due for a huge outing.

11. Kyran Moore, Saskatchewan ($7,170): He’s caught 29 passes in the five games since returning from injury and comes off a 10-catch effort in last week’s loss to Winnipeg. Moore has become the most reliable option in what has become a struggling Riders receiving corps.

12. DaVaris Daniels, Toronto ($6,654): If the Argonauts have to play catchup against the Lions, that means Daniels will be a critical part of the game plan. He’s a safe play with enough upside to make the investment worth it.

And Then There’s…

*Darvin Adams, Ottawa ($5,266)

*Rasheed Bailey, Winnipeg ($6,304)

*Derel Walker, Edmonton ($5,453)

*Brendan O’Leary-Orange, Winnipeg ($2,500): Really believe this kid could become a star.

*Markeith Ambles, Toronto ($5,781)

*Justin Hardy, Ottawa ($2,500): Strong bargain play here.

*Reggie White Jr., Montreal ($5,568)

*Shaq Evans, Saskatchewan ($5,484)

*Tevaun Smith, Ottawa ($4,224)

*Janarion Grant, Winnipeg ($3,725)

*Jevon Cottoy, BC ($3,728)

*Kian Schaffer-Baker, Saskatchewan ($6,223)

*Kaion Julien-Grant, Montreal ($3,347)

*Chandler Worthy, Montreal ($4,115)

*Devonte Dedmon, Ottawa ($5,283)

Defences

1.BC ($3,486)

2.Toronto ($4,057)

3.Winnipeg ($3,200)

4.Saskatchewan ($3,200)

5.Ottawa ($3,425)

6.Montreal ($3,353)

7.Hamilton ($3,200)

8.Edmonton ($3,200)

Stacktastic Voyage

Hamilton: Dane Evans ($8,150), Tim White ($10,969), Wes Hills ($4,000). Let’s gamble a bit and say that you get a couple of Evans majors and White gives you 100 yards and a TD. The gravy comes from Hills if he can give 80-plus scrimmage yards and a major. A wee on the risky side at $23,119, but hey, it’s Week 18. Why not get a little risky?

Edmonton: Taylor Cornelius ($10,580), Kevin Brown ($5,467), Dillon Mitchell ($5,398). Still an affordable stack with upside. Brown just needs to continue being Brown to help this $21,445 stack pay off.

Winnipeg: Brady Oliveira ($6,614), Nic Demski ($9,875), Dalton Schoen ($7,643). If there’s a stack that pays off this week, it’s this one. You could take out Oliveira and put faith in Brendan O’Leary-Orange ($2,500), turning the original stack from a steep $24,132 to just $20,018.

BC: Vernon Adams Jr., ($6,939), Dominique Rhymes ($8,647), Keon Hatcher ($5,711). Adams’ value makes this a strong stack to build with. As much potential as the Blue Bombers’ stack offers, the Lions have just as much upside and — most of all — are cheaper that the original Winnipeg stack at $21,297.