Dave Chidley/CFL.ca
TORONTO — When it comes to the CFL Simulation, you can assume that it gravitates toward Al Davis.
If a team wants to shine in the weekly updates of its projected record and playoff fate, follow Davis’ sage, timeless advice and just win, baby.
When winning is engrained in your name, it might just come naturally to you.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers picked up their league-leading 14th win last week, trouncing the Edmonton Elks, snuffing out their playoff hopes and cementing their own at the same time, securing the top spot in the West Division. That fared well for the two-time defending Grey Cup champs, whose playoff and Grey Cup odds have increased this week.
The simulation turns its robotic gaze toward the Bombers, the Calgary Stampeders and the Toronto Argonauts, all teams that have won their share of games this year and as a result, have their names high up on the lists you’ll read below.
The Ottawa REDBLACKS haven’t had that fortune for much of the year, but their win on the road against the Montreal Alouettes has also boosted their playoff chances. That’s something that their fans can savour this week, as they hope for what would be a remarkable run to the playoffs.
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Check out this week’s edition of the CFL Simulation to see your team’s updated postseason odds.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS |
|
| Team (Projected 2022 Record) | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (15-3) | C |
| Calgary Stampeders (13-5) | C |
| Toronto Argonauts (11-7) | C |
| BC Lions (11-7) | C |
| Montreal Alouettes (8-10) | 98.81% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (6-12) | 48.72% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-12) | 34.24% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (6-12) | 18.23% |
| Edmonton Elks (5-13) | E |
ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | C |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | C |
| Montreal Alouettes | 91.17% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 89.75% |
| BC Lions | 10.25% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 6.76% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 2.07% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO WIN EAST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 98.94% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 1.06% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | E |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | E |
ODDS TO WIN WEST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | C |
| BC Lions | E |
| Calgary Stampeders | E |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | E |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO APPEAR IN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 87.16% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 62.71% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 35.06% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 8.26% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 3.10% |
| BC Lions | 2.23% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.89% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.59% |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
ODDS TO WIN 109TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 47.33% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 29.07% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 21.06% |
| BC Lions | 1.33% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.75% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.36% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.06% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.04% |
| Edmonton Elks | E |
MOST LIKELY 109TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 54.56% |
| Calgary-Toronto | 30.64% |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 5.25% |
| Calgary-Montreal | 2.83% |
| Tied: BC-Toronto | 1.95% |
| Tied: Winnipeg-Hamilton | 1.95% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
