August 15, 2023

Fantasy Projections: How will Morrow fare against BC?

Peter McCabe/CFL.ca

Each of the four Week 11 games could have at least one backup pivot getting the start as health at the position continues to be one of the underlying stories of CFL fantasy play. The Blue Bombers could be without Zach Collaros ($15,000) when they visit the Stampeders while all signs point toward Jake Dolegala ($8,000) getting the nod for Saskatchewan when they host BC. The status of Montreal’s Cody Fajardo ($13,500) isn’t guaranteed, either, making the choices at the position more daunting for fantasy users.

Press on, we will, though. Here’s this week’s projections.

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Quarterbacks

1. Vernon Adams Jr., BC, $13,500 Salary (16.5 Projected Fantasy Points): Just as we said here last week, Adams did come back from the Injured List and tagged Calgary with a season best 26.4 fantasy points. Don’t worry about Saskatchewan coming into Week 11 with the fewest passing yards allowed as Adams has thrown for at least 291 yards in four of the last five games he’s started outside of the Week 7 matchup against the Roughriders that saw him leave early due to injury.

2. Cody Fajardo, Montreal, $13,500 Salary (16.3): Assuming Fajardo returns to the lineup, he’s in excellent position to exceed his projection considering the Als are facing a REDBLACKS pass defence that has given up a league-worst 326 yards per game. Ottawa has also given up 24 completions of 30 yards or more, making a Fajardo-Austin Mack ($11,200) stack a sure play to deliver huge fantasy numbers.

3. Dru Brown, Winnipeg, $6,000 Salary (9.6): Brown may not repeat last week’s 28 fantasy points, but he should be well within the range of 18-20 if the Blue Bombers give him the nod. Winnipeg pivots have thrown 23 completions of better than 30 yards, and with perhaps the league’s best receiving corps at his disposal, Brown should get down at the expense of the Stampeders.

4. Tre Ford, Edmonton, $5,000 Salary (12.0): There is strong value here. Ford should have a solid fantasy outing against a Hamilton defence that allows a staggering 8.01 yards per play on first down. The potential return of All-Star receiver Eugene Lewis ($15,000) only enhances Ford’s upside.

5. Dustin Crum, Ottawa, $8,500 Salary (19.0): Montreal’s pass defence will prove more challenging than the Toronto D that Crum tallied 27.2 FP against in Week 10. However, the door will be open for Crum to run more often, so don’t be surprised if he puts up a rushing major.

 

Running Backs

1. James Butler, Hamilton, $11,000 Salary (16.1): It’s Butler’s turn to pad his numbers against the Edmonton run defence. He scored a season high 25.7 FP in the previous meeting versus the Elks in Week 6 and has scored at least 13.2 FP in three of his last four games.

2. Kevin Brown, Edmonton, $14,000 Salary (15.8): Hamilton’s run defence is just as suspect as Edmonton’s. The Tiger-Cats are eighth in rushing yards allowed at 121.6, and as evidenced in his first carry in Week 10, Brown can hit the switch in sudden fashion.

3. Brady Oliveira, Winnipeg, $14,500 Salary (17.2): He’s on a tear, having scored a combined 41.4 fantasy points the past two games while also scoring at least 14.0 FP in each of his last six games,.

4. Jamal Morrow, Saskatchewan, $13,000 Salary (13.6): The projection might feel too lofty for Morrow, who has failed to score more than 10.7 FP in his last four games. With the Roughriders turning to their third starting pivot this season, Morrow will be in line for a higher volume of touches.

5. Ka’Deem Carey, Calgary, $10,700 Salary (4.1): The Stampeders eased him back into action with seven carries in Week 10. The concern with Carey is whether he’s returning as the undisputed RB1 in Calgary or if he and Dedrick Mills ($12,000) are now part of a timeshare.

 

Receivers

1. Dalton Schoen, Winnipeg, $14,800 Salary (15.8): Buckle up, folks. Looks like we’re about to get a Schoen fantasy run that will extend into Week 11. Schoen is the only receiver in the league with more than 1,000 depth yards (1,086) with a 17.5-yard average target. Bank on another 2-3 deep shots against the Stampeders.

2. Keon Hatcher, BC, $13,000 Salary (17.8): The owner of the highest projection among Week 11 receivers, Hatcher has scored double digit fantasy points in each of his last six games while raising his efficiency rate to 101.7.

3. Austin Mack, Montreal, $11,200 Salary (14.4): Certainly, Mack is going to be near the top of the rankings considering he gets to take his shots against Ottawa’s league-worst pass defence. Even with just one reception in Week 10, Mack still finished with 12.6 fantasy points. Imagine what he could do with 6-8 catches against the REDBLACKS.

4. Nic Demski, Winnipeg, $13,000 Salary (16.5): Put it all on Demski to exceed his projection. He’s topped 18.5 FP in each of his last four games and you had to have liked the rapport he and Dru Brown had in Week 10.

5. Jaelon Acklin, Ottawa, $8,500 Salary (11.0): It’s been some time since we’ve seen Acklin in the weekly rankings. Last week’s 27.7 FP breakout is a sign perhaps the REDBLACKS have finally come at ease to throw the ball downfield. If so, that’s great news for Acklin.

6. Kenny Lawler, Winnipeg, $12,500 Salary (16.6): He “only” had just 12.3 FP in Week 10. Lawler has a stellar 127.4 efficiency rating in just three games, and if you want a scary good stat, consider this: Lawler’s average depth per route (18.0) is better than Schoen’s.

7. Justin Hardy, Ottawa, $10,000 Salary (14.1): The consistency is here with Hardy, who has scored at least 11.5 FP in four of his last five games. His numbers will get better the more the REDBLACKS continue to stress a more aggressive passing attack.

8. Eugene Lewis, Edmonton, $15,000 Salary (9.9): Lewis is in line to make his first appearance since Week 3, and there’s every reason to think the Elks will waste no time getting his big play potential back into the fold.

9. Shawn Bane Jr., Saskatchewan, $14,300 Salary (15.1): For Bane to get close to achieving his projection, the Roughriders are going to need Jake Dolegala to average more than the 5.3 yards per attempt he recorded in Week 10.

10. Alexander Hollins, BC, $14,000 Salary (12.4): Hollins rebounded from an off Week 9 against the Blue Bombers with a solid 21.0 FP in Week 10. He’s scored at least 14.6 FP in three of his past four games while quietly becoming the Lions’ WR2 behind Keon Hatcher.

11. Terry Godwin, Hamilton, $12,300 Salary (12.4): He’s not the Ticats receiver most would expect to appear in the rankings. However, Godwin has gone under the radar with three straight games of at least 12.1 fantasy points.

12. Reggie Begelton, Calgary, $13,000 Salary (13.9): Almost like Shawn Bane Jr., Begelton’s production will hinge on if Jake Maier can avoid a third straight game of less than 200 passing yards.

Defences

1. BC, $10,200 Salary (14.5): The Lions defence scored 11 FP in the first meeting against the Roughriders. Facing a third string pivot makes them an excellent choice atop this week’s rankings.

2. Winnipeg, $9,700 Salary (12.9): It’s been some time (Week 4, to be exact) since we’ve seen a dominant fantasy effort from the Blue Bombers defence. A slumping Calgary offence could be the tonic Willie Jefferson and Friends need.

3. Hamilton, $8,600 Salary (11.7): In what should be a wild scoring affair, the Ticats’ D could find their way into the end zone against the Elks.

4. Montreal, $9,000 Salary (10.7): Ottawa’s offence is streaky, so there’s a chance the Alouettes could catch them on a downtrend.

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