Weekly Predictor: Smelling what the BC Lions are cooking

Jamie Nye

CFL.ca

@jamienye

What did we learn in Week 1 of the CFL season?

There is some room for improvement for a lot of the offences in the league, which is not a surprise. Six of the nine teams are starting quarterbacks who are in their first training camp with their new team.

But, I knew what to expect clearly, fluking my way to a 4-0 start to the season with the expert picks. Jim Morris and I have the pulse of the CFL early.

This week, however, there are some interesting matchups to try and dissect before you make your picks.

Calgary at Ottawa
Thursday, June 15
7:30 p.m. ET

Both teams walk out of Week 1 knowing that they need to be a whole lot better, especially on offence.

Nick Arbuckle is due to make his second start and potentially his last of the season, with the REDBLACKS initially saying Jeremiah Masoli would miss the first two weeks of play. Arbuckle needs to be much better in protecting the football as his touchdown to interception ratio shows he’s far too willing to make either bad decisions or trying too hard to fit the ball in.

In Calgary, Ka’Deem Carey hasn’t practised yet this week at the time of publication so it might be Dedrick Mills having to fill in behind Jake Maier. The Stamps’ QB had a lot of hype around him and I just wonder if it’s the BC Lions that have the game plan on him because in back to back games now, BC has made Maier miserable going back to last year’s Western Semi-final.

The positive for both teams is their defences did make some plays last week in a losing cause.

So how am I going to make the pick? I’m going to go with strength of schedule early, as I have the Lions as a much stronger team than the Alouettes when you look at who these two teams played in Week 1 when analyzing who will be the stronger team in Week 2.

PICK: Calgary

Winnipeg at Saskatchewan
Friday, June 16
9:00 p.m. ET

Zach Collaros’ productive first quarter set the tone for the Bombers’ win over the Ticats in Week 1 (Jonathan Kozub/CFL.ca)

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers came out of the gate in 2023 with a statement: any talk of a drop off in Winnipeg is far too premature.

Zach Collaros was in midseason form, except for a 10-minute lull with the game already in hand. This was still an offence missing one of the best receivers in the game with Kenny Lawler starting the season away from the team.

The defence was also top notch, with Willie Jefferson already knocking down passes and quarterbacks and just being his all around disruptive self.

In Saskatchewan, Trevor Harris showed that maybe he did need more than one series and four throws to get acclimated to live bullets in this new offence. Harris also was dinged up with a hip pointer injury at the end of the game and at the time of writing we haven’t been able to see his participation in practice.

As for the Roughriders’ defence, they are a group to be reckoned with. Their defensive tackles got a sack each and they are a hard hitting, play making defence that is the strength of the Roughriders.

They set the tone against Edmonton and it’ll be interesting to see how much they can disrupt the Bombers’ offence, compared to what the Tiger-Cats did in Week 1.

However, in order to be the best you have to beat the best and the Riders have had a tough time doing so in the last few years.

PICK: Winnipeg

Edmonton at BC
Saturday, June 17
7 p.m. ET

If I was to re-write my preseason picks for this season, I’d start to think about Vernon Adams Jr. as a pick for the league’s Most Outstanding Player. He’s looked so comfortable in preseason and now in Week 1 of the regular season.

He and Dominique Rhymes were a special connection in the first week and he has so much talent around him to turn to if defences were to start sliding coverage Rhymes’ way.

The Lions’ defensive ends are a good group and why Shawn Lemon was a surprise cut at camp, because they clearly felt they had the depth to get it done without one of the most consistent pass rushers in the league.

In Edmonton, add Taylor Cornelius to the long list of quarterbacks hoping to be much better in Week 2. Yes, I just applauded the Riders’ defence, but Cornelius also missed a few throws that may have made a big difference in a four-point loss to Saskatchewan last week.

Edmonton would like to see a little bit more pressure up front from their defence this week, but they’ll also have a much different test with a much more mobile and athletic quarterback than last week against Saskatchewan.

Maybe I’m blinded by Adams going 9-9 and 12-12 to start his preseason and regular season games, but the Lions are already much more refined out of the gate than Edmonton.

PICK: BC

Hamilton at Toronto
Sunday, June 18
7 p.m. ET

The Chad Kelly era begins in Toronto this week, as the Argos welcome the Ticats to BMO Field (Argonauts.ca)

The week wraps up with the Toronto Argonauts celebrating their Grey Cup championship at home and against their biggest rival.

Toronto had the first week bye and looking back, the team with the first week bye (including Toronto in ‘22) have won four of the last five years in Week 2.

So maybe getting the film work done on what the opposition is doing is much more advantageous than breaking off the rust in Week 1.

One of the main storylines in the CFL season is how Chad Kelly will do with the keys to the car in Toronto. Many fans are excited to see him after the way he closed out the Grey Cup, replacing the injured McLeod Bethel-Thompson to lead the Argos to victory.

He will run, he will throw, he’ll put on a show.

The Tiger-Cats are licking their wounds after getting beat up in Winnipeg. They made it interesting over the span of about 10 minutes but I’m thinking it was more a lack of focus by the Bombers than a sign the Tiger-Cats were getting it together.

Bo Levi Mitchell struggled in his first start and needs more time to find some chemistry with his receivers. The benefit in Hamilton is I know that defence is much better than what they showed, giving up 42 points.

This is my toughest pick as of yet this season. Before we kicked off, I’d pick Hamilton as the winner of the East but I wasn’t thrilled with their offensive line play last week and Toronto is stacked with a big question at quarterback.

Hmmm…

PICK: Toronto

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