CFL Simulation: Sizing up a leapfrog situation

TORONTO — Two weeks ago, we had reassuring words for fans of the Saskatchewan Roughriders.

Now, we offer some encouragement to fans of their opponent this week.

Fans of the Calgary Stampeders are in very unfamiliar and uncomfortable territory this season. The Stamps have just four wins, sit in the ninth spot in the CFL.ca Power Rankings and face a very real possibility of seeing a 17-season playoff streak being snapped. The 2023 campaign has had more lows than highs, which goes strongly against the standard that the Stampeders organization has set through the past two decades.

It’s a bleak picture right now, but it’s not a finished portrait yet. The Stamps come out of a bye to host the Riders this week and if they can win, they take the season series with one of their arch-rivals and reignite some playoff fire under their feet. The Stamps need to win their final three games and the Riders would have to drop their final two for the leapfrog to happen. However, the Riders make that seem feasible thanks to their now five-game losing streak.

That’s where the CFL Simulation comes in. This week’s Simulation sees the Stamps making that leap and finishing the season with a 6-12 record that would match Saskatchewan’s. With the season series, the Stamps would make the playoffs and the Simulation gives them a 51.45 per cent chance of that happening, as opposed to the 48.55 per cent chance it offers the Riders.

We’ll find out on Friday night just how right the Simulation is on this one.

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Check out the latest CFL Simulation to see where your team stands.

*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome

The model considers the following:

• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Toronto won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.