Thomas Skrlj/CFL.ca
HAMILTON — On the heels of their stunning Eastern Final win over the 16-2 Toronto Argonauts, the Montreal Alouettes have seen their Grey Cup odds almost fully quintuple from a week ago.
As good as that sounds, the CFL Simulation still favours the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in Sunday’s 110th Grey Cup.
A week ago, the Als had a 9.03 per cent chance of winning the Grey Cup. They go into Sunday’s game with a 45 per cent chance. The Bombers, whom the Simulation predicted to come out of the West and as its Grey Cup favourite last week, hold a 55 per cent chance at winning their third Grey Cup in the last four years.
The Simulation has the Bombers as two-point favourites for Sunday.
110th GREY CUP
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| Odds to win the 110th Grey Cup | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 55.00% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 45.00% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Toronto won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
