Arthur Ward/CFL.ca
Being able to nail down good picks at quarterback or running back in Fantasy contests is a considerably easier task than being able to sort out who to start at receiver. There really are only a half a dozen players worthy of consideration in any given week at the quarterback or running back spots. When it comes to receiver, though, there are literally a half dozen contributing receivers on every CFL team, so being able to discern producers from pretenders is an essential skill for a good Fantasy owner.
Building Blocks
The top two receivers coming into this season get top billing not just for their receiving prowess and ability to convert big plays into touchdowns, but because of their added upside from their kick and punt return roles. Brandon Banks and Diontae Spencer had massive coming-out parties in the second half of 2017 and look to continue that success this coming season. Through the last 10 weeks of the season Banks averaged 8.6 targets per game and converted those looks into eight touchdowns. Spencer also saw an increased role in that final 10-game span, averaging 7.6 targets per game and converting them into five touchdowns. Both have the usage and big-play ability sought after by Fantasy players.
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Spencer’s teammate Greg Ellingson doesn’t have the special teams upside that Diontae does, but he certainly makes up for it through volume and efficiency in the passing game. Ellingson had a ridiculous 143 receiving targets last season to go along with an average of 15.2 yards per reception. He is a threat to score a touchdown on almost every route and will get plenty of looks again this season from a healthy Trevor Harris.
The departures of Brandon Zylstra and Adarius Bowman from the City of Champions opens up a massive 205 targets to be redistributed to other receivers this season. After his mid-season return from Tampa Bay in the NFL, Derel Walker ran back in full stride into the Eskimos offence. He’ll the be clear number one target for Mike Reilly this season. In only eight games in 2017 he had 71 targets, which gave him an unmatched workload in the CFL.
Naaman Roosevelt has the most question marks surrounding him of any player in the Building Blocks tier, as he seemed to struggle to return to full form after an injury absence last season. He also has to get in sync with a new starting quarterback in Zach Collaros. Roosevelt appeared in just 14 games last season, but his average of 7.4 targets per game and his nose for the end zone (eight touchdowns) make him worthy of consideration every week as a Fantasy starter in the high-powered Riders offence that led the league in passing touchdowns (35) in 2017.
Solid Plays
This next tier of receivers can have similar upside to the Building Blocks but tends not to reach that ceiling with as much consistency. They certainly have a lot of talent and opportunity, but getting them on the right week makes all the difference in creating a winning lineup.
Kamar Jorden appeared to have taken over the role as the top receiver in the Calgary offence by the end of 2016, but injuries marred his promising 2017 campaign, limiting him to only 10 games. In those 10 games though, he had double-digit targets in five of them, averaging 8.2 targets per game. The retirement of Marquay McDaniel in the off-season should cement him atop the depth chart in Calgary as the prime target for Bo Levi Mitchell. Jorden will be looked to early and often, so he’s worthy of consideration every week if he can stay healthy.
Kamar Jorden had a nose for the end zone in 2017, scoring seven times in 10 games (The Canadian Press)
Similarly, Darvin Adams was limited to just 14 full games in 2017, but got plenty of opportunities to produce as Matt Nichols‘ favourite target, averaging 8.2 targets per game with seven total touchdowns. The addition of Adarius Bowman to the receiving corps should help draw coverage away from him and teammate Weston Dressler and clear up even more space to use his top end speed. Dressler has similar big-play ability to Adams, but doesn’t get quite as many targets as he does, making him a more of a boom or bust option.
The Lions’ receiving duo of Bryan Burnham and Emmanuel Arceneaux will likely see an increased workload this season as the team moves on from both Chris Williams and Nick Moore. Burnham has emerged as one of the most efficient receivers in the CFL over the past two seasons, routinely breaking off big plays for touchdowns. Arceneaux has transitioned into a more possession-oriented receiver as his yards per catch have declined slightly each of the past three years. A lot of their success this season, though, lies in the hands of QB Jonathon Jennings’ ability to get back on track to realizing his full potential as both successful rusher and passer.
In Hamilton, Brandon Banks tends to get the most attention of the Ticats receivers for his contributions in multiple phases of the game, but both Jalen Saunders and Luke Tasker also had 1,000 yard receiving seasons in 2017. It’s unlikely that all of Banks, Saunders, and Tasker can get 100 yards receiving and a touchdown every week. It will be important to monitor matchups and depth charts weekly to decipher which of the Hamilton targets is most likely to be the beneficiary of the Ticats’ offence that passed a league high 71 per cent of the time last season. If Terrence Toliver manages to regain his form as a deep threat coming off a leg injury in 2017, you can certainly add him to this group as well.
The Argonauts were a close second to the Ticats in passing play percentage last season at 70 per cent, which makes their top two targets SJ Green and Armanti Edwards part of the weekly conversation at receiver. The departure of DeVier Posey should open up a few more red zone targets for them as well. Last season, S.J. Green showed that he’s not done yet, flashing some big-play ability that led him to finishing with a career-high 104 receptions for 1,462 yards and 10 touchdowns. At age 33 though, it’s difficult to envision him reaching those heights again this season, keeping him out of the elite group of receivers. Edwards wasn’t as flashy a target as his teammate Green, but his consistency from 2017 and increased opportunity in 2018 may make him a solid value play consideration.
Unfair as it may be, S.J. Green’s age could deter some Fantasy players this season (The Canadian Press)
Chad Owens waited until the final three games of the season before making his 2017 debut in Saskatchewan, but over those games he averaged eight targets as a centerpiece of the offence. The return of Naaman Roosevelt and the potential for Duron Carter to return to more reps on the offensive side of the ball makes Owens’ role in the offence a little more tenuous, but he has the speed and hands to dominate a game when given the opportunities.
Spot Starts
All the receivers in this tier have shown flashes of brilliance but they also each have significant question marks regarding their opportunities to shine in 2018. They’re certainly worth a look every week, but Fantasy players will have to do their research to ensure they’re worth starting.
There is certainly a good case to be made for Duron Carter as the most talented receiver in the league. If he were only playing receiver, he would certainly be in the Building Blocks tier. However, midway through last season he began seeing playing time at corner in the Riders’ defensive secondary, and that limited his involvement in offence. While many Fantasy players hoped it was a gimmick to be left in 2017, Carter has spent a lot of time in training camp and pre-season on the defensive side of the ball again. Without a clear role in the Saskatchewan offence, it’s difficult to commit to paying top dollar to roster Carter in Fantasy contests. His upside is immense, but his floor is also quite low due to the uncertainty.
Another Riders receiver of note in this tier is Bakari Grant, who quietly had a 1,000 yard season in Regina after arriving from Calgary a year ago. Grant’s 113 targets were spread pretty evenly between starting quarterbacks Kevin Glenn and Brandon Bridge, so it’s reasonable to believe he’ll be a significant part of the Riders game plan each week regardless of who the starting quarterback is for the Riders.
Brad Sinopoli may lack some of the glamour of his teammates Ellingson and Spencer, but he consistently makes difficult catches over the middle where other receivers hesitate to go. He doesn’t have as high a ceiling as some, with an 11.1 yards per catch average versus the 14-15 yard average of some of the elite fantasy receivers, but his consistency makes him an appealing option when the price is right.
The ceiling isn’t as high with Brad Sinopoli, but the Canadian delivers consistent production (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)
The Stampeders’ defence was so dominant in 2017 that it wound up hurting the Fantasy production of many of their receivers, as the offence morphed into one centered around a ball control scheme. Adding more points on offence became unnecessary at times. A few changes to that dominant defence along with the retirement of Marquay McDaniel may lead to increased opportunities for teammates DaVaris Daniels and Marken Michel. The latter emerged as a big-play threat while Daniels missed time to injury, so it remains to be seen how the group will mesh when all are in the lineup together. Daniels has a career average of 16.6 yards per catch while Michel averaged a gargantuan 18.6 yards per catch in his rookie season. If either of them can get a hold of a significant market share of targets in Calgary their Fantasy stocks will soar.
Derel Walker is the clear lead receiver in Edmonton this season, but the 205 targets vacated by Zylstra and Bowman will likely be soaked up by some combination of Duke Williams, Bryant Mitchell, and Vidal Hazelton. Each of them had some huge games last season as the Eskimos’ receiver depth was tested due to injuries. Mitchell looks to have the inside track at a starting slot position, which is a prime spot for Fantasy production. Williams, on the other hand, has the most raw athleticism of the bunch, but being pushed all the way out to field side wide receiver limits his targets overall. If however, Williams works his way a little closer into the action at slot or boundary wide receiver, the sky is the limit for his production.
The change of scenery, following a season limited by injury, may be exactly what Adarius Bowman needs in Winnipeg this year. There will be fewer receivers to compete with for targets there as few of his teammates have the pedigree and track record he brings to the field. His yards per reception saw a significant decrease last season however and it’s unlikely he gets near the 150-180 targets he received in Edmonton from 2014-2016, so it’s important to keep expectations in check as Bowman settles in as a Blue Bomber. His new running mate Rueben Randle is a CFL rookie, but an NFL veteran, having spent time with the Giants, Eagles, and Bears from 2012-2017. Randle has top-end 4.43 40-yard dash speed, and his relative anonymity to CFL fans may make him an early-season Fantasy sleeper.
With a new team, Adarius Bowman is looking to return to his 2016 level of production (The Canadian Press)
Trying to figure out what to do with the talented group of pass-catchers in Montreal this season will likely be a season long conundrum for Fantasy players. Each of B.J. Cunningham, Ernest Jackson, and Chris Williams have proved they are capable of huge fantasy performances, but inconsistency at quarterback has led to inconsistency in their production as well. The retirement of Josh Freeman likely cements Drew Willy as the new starting quarterback in Montreal. If new head coach Mike Sherman can help give the offence some consistency and identity each of Cunningham, Jackson and Williams could have huge seasons. There is just too much risk involved for Fantasy players to consider them early in the season.
Long Shots
Each of these receivers has had a few big games in their past, but injuries or lack of opportunities have kept them from emerging as regular Fantasy contributors. The 2018 season is opening the door again though for each of these players to breakout in a new situation.
Ricky Collins Jr. was the darling of the early 2016 Fantasy season after July performance that saw him go for 115 yards and a touchdown. However, injuries and stacked depth charts have kept him from reaching that ceiling since then. A new opportunity this season in BC without as much competition for targets may give him a new chance to emerge as a regular Fantasy contributor.
Nic Demski faced similar struggles in Saskatchewan with injuries and too many mouths to feed in the receiving corps. This off-season he returned home to Winnipeg and hopes to have increased opportunities for the Blue Bombers. If he can get more consistent targets in the passing game along with opportunities to use his skills in the return game, he could be a great early season value.
