Weekly Predictor: All aboard with the Argonauts

Jamie Nye

CFL.ca

@jamienye

We are getting to that point in the season when you’ll see one team near the top of the standings start to slip and another team near the bottom of the standings start to find their game.

Last year it was the 4-1 Roughriders who took a 2-11 swoon. The 0-4 Hamilton Tiger-Cats went 8-6 the rest of the way, while the 1-4 Alouettes went 8-5 the rest of the season.

The most famous turnaround was the 2011 BC Lions who started the season 0-5 before going 11-2 the rest of the way on their road to a Grey Cup Championship.

Right now though it’s hard to find optimism for the Tiger-Cats, REDBLACKS, Elks or Stampeders; all have one win or less on the season.

So, do we keep riding the favourites? Or is time to take a swing for an upset?

Keeping it safe has allowed me to get off to a 16-3 record through the first 19 games of the season, although this week may be one for surprises.

Hamilton at Edmonton
Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats beat the Ottawa REDBLACKS to win their first game of the season, leaving the Edmonton Elks as the only winless team left in the league.

The Elks are coming off a bend but don’t break defensive effort. If not for one of the biggest mental blunders in recent CFL memory and a bad throw on the potential game-winning drive, Edmonton could have walked into Mosaic Stadium and won.

Now the Elks are at home and we’ll hear over and over again about the long losing streak at home, which is stretching close to 20 games over the last four seasons.

While there might be a bit of confidence in the air for the Tiger-Cats coming into Edmonton, I feel a 21-13 win over the REDBLACKS with Dustin Crum throwing two interceptions in his first CFL action is a bit lacking to inspire my confidence.

Add into the fact the Elks the have a decent, young, and athletic secondary and an offence that does have some playmakers if Taylor Cornelius can get them the ball, I don’t see this Elks team going 0-18 this season.

The other factor. Rest… or lack there off. Five days between games for Hamilton with a long trip. I’ll take the Elks to end the streak!

PICK: EDMONTON

Toronto at Montreal
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET

The Toronto Argonauts should be the most well rested team with their two bye weeks in the first five weeks of the season. Now they head out on the road to take on the Alouettes, who will have just four days off between a game in Vancouver and Friday night in Montreal.

Already advantage Toronto.

Then I look at a team in Montreal who has averaged allowing over five sacks per game, against a team that has averaged almost four sacks per game. And yeah, I give the line of scrimmage advantage to the Toronto Argonauts.

The Alouettes need to take some pressure of Fajardo and the best way is to dial up William Stanback a little bit more. If Stanback gets rolling, it’ll be harder for teams to send the blitz at Fajardo. But only six run calls for Stanback is far too little.

After a 2-0 start, the Alouettes could send a major message this week against the undefeated Argos, despite losing back-to-back games to fall to .500.

Over in Toronto, Chad Kelly is growing his status as a next star of the league with a 3-0 start to the season but it’s not like he’s a dominating force. There are mistakes and inconsistencies but he’s so athletic that he makes up for it in different ways and AJ Ouellette, Kelly and Andrew Harris are a powerful three headed monster to get first downs on the ground.

The Argonauts defence is one of the most talented groups in the league, if not one of the most talented overall in the last decade.

I don’t envision the Argos losing unless the Alouettes defence creates a bundle of turnovers.

PICK: TORONTO

Winnipeg at Ottawa
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET

The entire league is sick for Jeremiah Masoli to see him be lost for the season in his first game back from last year’s devastating leg injury.

The reality for the REDBLACKS is, again, looking at inexperience at quarterback in Dustin Crum to be their next quarterback. The team is excited about his future but again will throw a quarterback into the fire potentially long before he’s ready.

It’s unfortunate but the thing I liked about Crum last week was his guts. He didn’t flinch and the last play of the game was two yards away from being a legendary play for the rookie quarterback. He’ll get first team reps to get a little bit more prepared for the challenge headed his way.

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers were challenged by the Calgary Stampeders but with a beneficial call, a few big plays and a shutout by the defence in the second half, the Bombers improved to 4-1 on the season.

We shouldn’t be surprised the Bombers running back Brady Oliveira is leading the league in rushing by 115 yards. The Bombers continue to do what they do. Play strong defence, get big plays when needed and then run the ball down your throat to seal off the game.

It just feels like the Bombers will be too much to overcome for Ottawa this week

PICK: WINNIPEG

Calgary at Saskatchewan
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET

The last time these two squared off ended in a dramatic double overtime classic with Nic Marshall making his first of back-to-back game winning interceptions.

These two teams are almost identical in many stats; passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, and rushing yards gained.

The biggest difference is at quarterback. Trevor Harris has outplayed Jake Maier this season and you can point to the play of both as to why one team is 3-1 and the other team is 1-3.

Maier’s accuracy needs to be better as the new leader of the Stamps is last out of regular starters in completion percentage and has thrown six interceptions, which is second highest among starters in the league.

If Maier can be more efficient, it could lead to the Stampeders to find a bit of their groove. The talent is there in Calgary and it’s a bit surprising to see them near the bottom of the standings.

The Roughriders are winning games with plays going their way, which is opposite to how the Stampeders season has gone.

The Riders continue to be ravaged by injuries with a stellar receiving corps on the six game injured list but players like Tevin Jones and Mitchell Picton have filled in without Harris missing a beat.

Last time against the Stampeders, Jamal Morrow took over that game and I’d expect to see the Riders try to repeat history after watching Brady Oliveira have a strong finish to last weeks game for Winnipeg.

I’m expecting a turnaround by the Stamps this season. If there is a team to be the one to do it out of the group at one win or less, it’s Calgary. My head says Saskatchewan. My gut says …

PICK: CALGARY

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